Saturday, December 4, 2010

#Stocks to watch:* Maybank, Kencana, Petra Energy, Alam

KUALA LUMPUR: The market is expected to be range bound on Monday, Dec 6 after the marginal weaker close on Wall Street with the focus on Europe's debt crisis. The FBM KLCI closed around the crucial 1,500 level last Friday on mild profit taking activities as the broader market displayed some caution.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 11.80 points, or 0.10 percent, at 11,350.61. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 1.05 points, or 0.09 percent, at 1,220.48. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 6.21 points, or 0.24 percent, at 2,585.56

Reuters reported employment barely grew in November. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 39,000, much less than forecast. The unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to a seven-month high of 9.8 percent, the Labor Department said.

But recent data, including retail sales and other labor reports, have raised optimism the recovery remains on track after hitting a soft patch in the summer when fears of a double-dip recession drove stocks sharply lower.

At Bursa Malaysia, stocks to watch include MALAYAN BANKING BHD [], KENCANA PETROLEUM BHD [], PETRA ENERGY BHD [], ALAM MARITIM RESOURCES BHD [] and RAMUNIA HOLDINGS BHD [].

Malayan Banking Bhd has been granted an extension until June 1, 2011 to complete its sell-down of its stake in PT Bank Internasional Indonesia.

Indonesia's Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal and Lembaga Keuangan (Bapepam) had granted the extension for Maybank -- which owns 97.5% of BII which it had acquired in 2008 -- to fulfill requirement.

Kencana Petroleum Bhd plans to raise RM350 million from a corporate exercise which includes the issuance of debt papers with detachable warrants.

Kencana proposed to issue up to five years nominal value Islamic Securities with detachable warrants on a 'bought deal' basis with AmInvestment Bank as the primary subscriber.

Petra Energy Bhd's unit Petra Resources Sdn Bhd secured a RM400 million contract from Petronas Carigali Sdn Bhd (PCSB) for the provision of hook-up and commissioning of the latter's offshore facilities.

Work for Petronas Carigali included onshore preparation works, onshore pre-fabrication and yard commissioning (if any), and onshore and offshore hook-up.

Alam Maritim Resources Bhd said it was not in favour of a proposed debt restructuring scheme proposed by VASTALUX ENERGY BHD []'s (VEB) debt-ridden subsidiary Vastalux Sdn Bhd (VSB) during a meeting with the creditors.

Under the scheme, Alam Maritim is part of the 'unsecured scheme creditors class 2' with RM146.81 million in total debts.

VSB proposed that 20% be settled through issuance of 117.5 million new shares in VEB, 50% to be settled through issuance of 293.62 million redeemable cumulative unsecured loan stocks (RCULS) while the remaining 30% to be waivered.

Ramunia Holdings Bhd's unit O&G Works Sdn Bhd (OGW) is teaming up with Dongnam Marine Crane Co Ltd (DMC) from South Korea to undertake the joint manufacturing of cranes.


Wall St flat but eyes best week in a month

NEW YORK: U.S. stocks were headed for their best week in a month on Friday, Dec 3 after a brighter assessment of the economy and a more optimistic view of Europe's debt crisis drove a rally earlier this week.

Major indexes were little changed on Friday after a lower-than-expected rise in U.S. nonfarm payroll jobs last month.

However, investors have been reassured by signs the economy is stabilizing and said the Federal Reserve would be less likely to withdraw stimulus with employment still below expectations.

Commodity-related shares benefited from a weaker dollar, which declined after the jobs report, helping to limit losses. Aluminum company Alcoa Inc gained 1 percent TO $14.23. Financials, which had their biggest day in three months on Thursday, gave up some gains. The KBW bank index fell 0.6 percent.

Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at RDM Financial in Westport, Connecticut, said that as well as making the Fed less likely to curtail its bond purchases, the disappointing jobs data would make Congress think twice about raising taxes next year.

"The likelihood of extending current tax rates has grown and we are unlikely to see any large legislation out of Washington that is unfriendly to the economy," he said.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 11.80 points, or 0.10 percent, at 11,350.61. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 1.05 points, or 0.09 percent, at 1,220.48. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 6.21 points, or 0.24 percent, at 2,585.56

Employment barely grew in November. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 39,000, much less than forecast. The unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to a seven-month high of 9.8 percent, the Labor Department said.

But recent data, including retail sales and other labor reports, have raised optimism the recovery remains on track after hitting a soft patch in the summer when fears of a double-dip recession drove stocks sharply lower.

The lack of investor alarm over the jobs report was reflected in the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, known as Wall Street's "fear gauge," which shed 6.7 percent to 18.10.

A separate report showed the U.S. services sector grew for an 11th straight month in November, according to the Institute for Supply Management. U.S. factory orders dropped in October, the government said.

The S&P 500 faced strong technical resistance at about 1,228, near a recent high of more than two years and also the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the index's slide from October 2007 to March 2009, a key technical indicator.

Support for the benchmark kicks in at 1,200, which was recently a stubborn resistance point, and the top end of its recent trading range, and near 1,195, its 10-day moving average.

Also helping to curb stocks' decline was the euro's gain on Friday of more than 1 percent against the U.S. dollar. In recent weeks, the euro's moves have been tightly coupled with U.S. and global equities.

In company news, U.S.-based mining group Walter Energy Inc agreed to buy Canada's Western Coal Corp for about $3.25 billion to create the world's leading metallurgical coal producer. Walter added 2.6 percent to $108.29. - Reuters


Top papers to charge online, but how?

NEW YORK/LONDON: Three of the world's most influential newspapers have finally come to terms with the notion that charging readers online is the only way to survive.

There is far less agreement on how to go about that, the publishers of The New York Times, The Times of London and the Financial Times made clear at this week's Reuters Global Media Summit.

The New York Times Co's launch of its long-awaited online payment system early next year will be the latest effort to convince readers to pay for what they have come to expect free.

It will join News Corp's Times of London, whose own tests have achieved mixed results.

"We create very valuable, important content and we are trying to ensure we get fairly compensated for it," said News Corp Chief Operating Officer Chase Carey.

Carey and other top executives speaking this week at the Reuters summit are trying to calibrate prices and bundles of products that will not alienate advertisers, fearful of steep drop-offs in readers, and consumers, who are accustomed to free access.

News Corp also owns the Wall Street Journal, which remains one of the few newspapers to have generated a healthy online business from subscriptions over the past decade.

But the strategy, which worked well for a business publication, has failed to yield similar results for News Corp's most recent attempt to charge readers of the Times.

News Corp put all the news from the Times' website behind a pay wall, charging 1 pound for a day or 2 pounds for a week's access. Its online readership dropped by almost 90 percent.

Success will be measured over years, not a quarter, Carey said. "The media always want to declare judgment in a quarter."

The New York Times, on the other hand, will employ a different tactic. It plans to announce as early as January prices for its "metered" model, which will charge readers after they access a limited number of articles for free on NYTimes.com.

Arthur Sulzberger Jr, publisher of the New York Times, took pains to make clear the stark differences between the approaches used by the two papers.

"Please don't compare us to the Times of London," Sulzberger said. "They have a gate, a real wall. We aren't doing that. To compare us to them is just a false comparison."

He added: "We want to be part of the digital ecosystem."

It will be the second major attempt for the New York Times to convince readers to pay, mindful of the publishing industry's challenge.

"We're going to test it. We're going to learn. We are going to adapt," Sulzberger said.

The U.S. and UK newspaper industries suffered an unprecedented decline in advertising spending that pushed papers into bankruptcy and resulted in thousands of job losses. Print papers and magazines have also competed with free digital news and entertainment venues for readers as circulation revenue has plunged over this period.

The New York Times dallied with a pay strategy in 2005, but pulled the plug by 2007 in its attempt to extract fees for access to TimesSelect, featuring its award-winning columnists such as Maureen Dowd and Frank Rich.

New York Times Chief Executive Janet Robinson called TimesSelect a "success" but said they ended the service in order to maximize its online readership.

The New York Times has spent the past year studying its proposed new metered model, finding ideas from telecom and cable companies, and even WeightWatchers, which charges users for in-depth diet tips.

"We know that we have the opportunity, particularly with the metered model, to manage this process," said Robinson.

Robinson did not detail plans for the strategy, but made clear there were distinctions between it and the Financial Times, from which it drew inspiration. The Pearson Plc -owned newspaper has charged people to read its news online since 2001.

Although the FT initially blocked all content from non-subscribers, the site switched to a metered model by 2007 that allowed people to read a set number of articles each month before asking for a fee.

Now digital revenue at the FT -- which includes subscriptions and advertising -- represents 20 percent of total revenue.

Speaking at the London arm of the Reuters Global Media Summit, FT Chief Executive John Ridding said digital subscriptions are steady and strong. These subscriptions have helped it collect valuable data from its customers.

"We can understand where traffic is coming from on a regional basis," Ridding said. "So that naturally increases the efficiency of the advertising."

This "efficiency" has enabled the FT to charge up to 10 times more for online ads tailored for its readers, Ridding said.

The more newspapers that start charging for online news, the better, Ridding said. "We've always believed that quality in journalism is worth paying for."


Maybank gets extension until June 2011 to sell down BII stake

KUALA LUMPUR: MALAYAN BANKING BHD [] has been granted an extension until June 1, 2011 to complete its sell-down of its stake in PT Bank Internasional Indonesia.

Maybank said on Friday, Dec 3 Indonesia's Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal and Lembaga Keuangan (Bapepam) had granted the extension for Maybank to fulfill the requirement.

'Maybank may request for further extension if the sell down exercise would result in Maybank incurring a potential loss in excess of 10% of Maybank's original value of BII acquisition, preferably two weeks before June 1, 2011,' it said.

Maybank owns 97.5% of BII which it had acquired in 2008 amid much criticism that it had paid too much for the Indonesian bank. It had until end of this year to pare down its stake. However, the run-up in BII shares in recent weeks had proved right Maybank's strategy to acquire BII.

The Edge FinancialDaily had in November reported Maybank's blended cost of acquiring BII in 2008 ranged between 429 rupiah to 455 rupiah a share. The cost blend is the result of Maybank buying the shares in three different tranches from Fullerton Financial Holdings-Kookmin Bank, BII shareholders as well as through a tender offer.

According to reports, the cost price is a blend of a 55.6% block from Fullerton-Kookmin at 433 rupiah per share, a 16.6% block from certain BII shareholders of 433 rupiah per share and 25.3% via the tender offer for 510 rupiah per share.

Amid public criticisms over the deal at that time and the roiling global financial crisis, Bank Negara Malaysia had also intervened in the deal, which resulted in the Fullerton-Kookmin consortium reducing its price from 510 rupiah to 433 rupiah.

In FY2009, Maybank wrote down its carrying value of BII by some 20% to 364 rupiah per share due to a goodwill impairment charge.


Kencana to raise RM350m via debt papers, warrants

KUALA LUMPUR: KENCANA PETROLEUM BHD [] plans to raise RM350 million from a corporate exercise which includes the issuance of debt papers with detachable warrants.

Kencana said on Friday, Dec 3 it proposed to issue up to five years nominal value Islamic Securities with detachable warrants on a 'bought deal' basis with AmInvestment Bank as the primary subscriber.

AmInvestment Bank would then offer for sale the provisional rights to the allotment of the warrants to Kencana shareholders. Kencana also proposed to place out up to 10% of its paid-up share capital.

The company said the fund-raising proposals were the most appropriate means of raising funds as the proposed Islamic securities with warrants would allow it to lock in medium term fixed rate financing at competitive rates to mitigate against interest rate volatility.

The warrants, when exercised, would enable the company to obtain additional proceeds to redeem the Islamic securities, to fund the working capital needs.

It added the'' proposed private placement would enable it to raise funds at an attractive and substantially lower cost as compared to bank financing.


RAM Ratings reaffirms AA1 rating of Mid Valley City's RM200 million debt facility, with ...

KUALA LUMPUR: RAM Ratings has reaffirmed the AA1 rating of Mid Valley City Sdn Bhd's (MVC) RM200 million nominal value Medium-Term Notes Programme (MTN), with a stable outlook.

The reaffirmation is premised on the transaction's structural features, the supporting credit enhancement and healthy performance of the underlying asset - Mid Valley Megamall (Megamall), it said in a statement Friday, Dec 3.

MVC is a wholly owned subsidiary of KrisAssets Holdings Berhad (KrisAssets), which is in turn the property-investment arm of IGB Corporation Berhad ' the ultimate parent company of MVC and Mid Valley Capital Sdn Bhd (MVCap).

MVC is also the owner and operator of Megamall. As such, the primary source of repayment for the MTN stems from the cashflow generated by Megamall.

The rating agency said that in FY Dec 2009, Megamall's pre-tax operating cash flow came up to RM157.86 million (6.8% higher year-on-year) vis-''-vis RAM Ratings' sustainable cash flow assumption of RM116 million.

'The better showing is mainly attributable to Megamall's higher average rental rate (ARR) and broader operating margins.

'We envisage upward potential for Megamall's ARR given the management's continuous efforts to enhance the tenancy mix and property profile of the mall; Megamall's property profile is considered above average, as indicated by RAM Ratings' property score of R-4.40,' it said.

RAM Ratings said under this transaction, the MTN holders would have a first-party, second-ranking charge over Megamall, sharing the same security as the RM400 million Redeemable Secured Bonds (MVCap Bonds) issued by MVCap, and the provider of the Standby Letter of Credit (SBLC) for KrisAssets' RM200 million Bank-Guaranteed Bonds (BG Bonds).

The rights of the MTN holders are subordinated to those of the holders of the MVCap Bonds, but are superior to those of the SBLC provider for the BG Bonds, i.e. DBS Bank Limited (Labuan) ' in terms of both cashflow priority and security ranking, it said.

'With further deleveraging of the MVCap Bonds in September 2010, coupled with the healthy cashflow generated by Megamall, the loan-to-value ratio and debt service coverage ratio for MVC's MTN stood at 30.2% and 2.9 times, respectively.

'RAM Ratings notes that MVC has only issued RM20 million of its RM200 million MTN to date,' it said.


FBM KLCI dips on mild profit taking

KUALA LUMPUR: The FBM KLCI slipped into negative territory but managed to stay above the psychologically crucial 1,500-point level at the close on Friday, Dec 3 as local stocks succumbed to some mild profit taking.

The gains at most key regional markets were limited as the Hong Kong and Shanghai markets fell into negative territory.

The Shanghai Composite Index slipped into the red on reports citing an academic advisor to the central bank as saying that China would gradually shift to a tighter monetary policy next year, and that it needed to slow money-supply growth.

Also, the HSCC purchasing managers' index for the China services sector fell to a 23-month low of 53.1 in November from 56.4 in October.

Also, data released by the US Labor Department showed that in the week ending Nov 27, initial jobless claims increased by 26,000 to 436,000 from 410,000 in the prior week.

The FBM KLCI closed 0.15% or 2.24 points lower at 1,500.98. Losers led gainers by 450 to 282, while 291 counters traded unchanged. Volume was 966.19 million shares valued at RM1.64 billion.

At the regional markets, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.55% to 23,320.52, the Shanghai Composite Index was down 0.04% to 2,842.43 and the Singapore Straits Times shed 0.8% to 3,172.44.

Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 0.10% to 10,178.32, Taiwan's Taiex rose 0.45% to 8,624.01 and South Korea's Kospi added 0.36% to 1,957.26.

The top loser was Far East Corp that fell 20 sen to RM6.90; Lafarge Malayan Cement fell 18 sen to RM7.42, Fima Corp lost 17 sen to RM5.38, Top Glove, Gamuda and IJM lost 15 sen each to RM5.60, RM3.75 and RM5.98 respectively, Milux and Hong Leong Financial Group down 14 sen each to RM1.35 and RM9, EON Capital fell 12 sen to RM6.94 and Sungei Bagan down 11 sen to RM3.13.

Gainers included BAT, Nestle, KLK, Tasek, GAB, Tradewinds, Batu Kawan, Genting amd RHB Capital.

The actives included Scomi, Sinotop, Key West, Petronas Chemicals, Karambunai, DRB-Hicom, Axiata and K-Star Sports.


Kian Joo's Vietnam unit buys land in expansion plan

KUALA LUMPUR: KIAN JOO CAN FACTORY BHD []'s (KJCF) wholly owned sub-subsidiary in Vietnam is acquiring a piece of leasehold industrial land in VSIP Bac Ninh, Bac Ninh Province as part of its expansion plans for US$1.62 million.

KJCF said on Friday, Dec 3 that Box-Pak (Vietnam) Co Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of its unit BOX-PAK (MALAYSIA) BHD [] had entered into a conditional letter of offer with VSIP Bac Ninh Co Ltd, the developer of VSIP Bac Ninh to acquire the land measuring 25,762 square meters.

It said the acquisition was for the expansion of Box-Pak (Vietnam)'s carton manufacturing operations in Vietnam.

KJCF'' said the land lease expiry date was Nov 30, 2057 and the acquisition would be funded by bank borrowings


SC strengthens ties with Qatar Financial Markets Authority

KUALA LUMPUR: The Securities Commission Malaysia (SC) has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Qatar Financial Markets Authority (QFMA)'' to strengthen the relationship between Malaysia and Qatar and foster closer regulatory ties and cooperation.

The MoU was signed here on Friday, Dec 3 by the SC Chairman, Tan Sri Zarinah Anwar and QFMA chief executive officer Nasser Ahmad Al-Shaibi.

In a statement, the SC said the MOU sought to strengthen cooperation and develop deeper ties between the capital market regulators of Qatar and Malaysia, and reiterates their commitment to strengthen cross-border enforcement and enhance overall investor protection.

Zarinah said that in an increasingly complex financial environment, it was important for regulators to continue to strengthen their cooperative networks through greater information-sharing and collaboration in capacity building.

Al-Shaibi said the MOU clarified the importance of the exchange of technical support between the Authorities in matters relating to the regulation of the securities industries.'' "The Authorities will also work together to determine the training and technical needs for the development of the stock markets for both countries, subject to the availability the appropriate expertise and resources,' he said.

The MoU establishes a framework for assistance and mutual cooperation to facilitate the supervision and enforcement of the respective capital markets in Malaysia and Qatar, the exchange of technical knowledge as well as collaboration in areas of mutual interest between the two regulators.

The SC has signed 29 MoUs with regulatory counterparts since 1994 as part of its commitment to strengthen international cooperation in securities regulation.

The SC is also a signatory to the International Organisation of Securities Commission's Multilateral Memorandum of Understanding, a global information-sharing arrangement among securities regulators.


Ramunia inks joint manufacturing agreement with S.Korea's DMC

KUALA LUMPUR: RAMUNIA HOLDINGS BHD []'s wholly owned subsidiary O&G Works Sdn Bhd (OGW) has signed a joint manufacturing agreement with Dongnam Marine Crane Co Ltd (DMC) from South Korea.

It said on Friday, Dec 3 that the agreement was to undertake the joint manufacturing of cranes including offshores cranes, marines cranes, floating cranes, deck cranes, Special Davits and deck machineries of DMC in the marine and offshore oil & gas exploration and production fields of application in Malaysia, using the 'Dong Nam' Brand and design.

DMC is an offshore crane and deck crane professional manufacturer that owns a yard with facilities to carry out all range of crane manufacturing and fabrication works.

Ramunia said the agreement was exclusive to OGW to a period of five years and was for the provision of all the relevant technical information and training required for the manufacturing of the products in Malaysia.

It said the fabrication of the products wouldl be undertaken jointly by both parties.


Friday, December 3, 2010

Kian Joo's Vietnam unit buys land in expansion plan

KUALA LUMPUR: KIAN JOO CAN FACTORY BHD []'s (KJCF) wholly owned sub-subsidiary in Vietnam is acquiring a piece of leasehold industrial land in VSIP Bac Ninh, Bac Ninh Province as part of its expansion plans for US$1.62 million.

KJCF said on Friday, Dec 3 that Box-Pak (Vietnam) Co Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of its unit BOX-PAK (MALAYSIA) BHD [] had entered into a conditional letter of offer with VSIP Bac Ninh Co Ltd, the developer of VSIP Bac Ninh to acquire the land measuring 25,762 square meters.

It said the acquisition was for the expansion of Box-Pak (Vietnam)'s carton manufacturing operations in Vietnam.

KJCF'' said the land lease expiry date was Nov 30, 2057 and the acquisition would be funded by bank borrowings


SC strengthens ties with Qatar Financial Markets Authority

KUALA LUMPUR: The Securities Commission Malaysia (SC) has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Qatar Financial Markets Authority (QFMA)'' to strengthen the relationship between Malaysia and Qatar and foster closer regulatory ties and cooperation.

The MoU was signed here on Friday, Dec 3 by the SC Chairman, Tan Sri Zarinah Anwar and QFMA chief executive officer Nasser Ahmad Al-Shaibi.

In a statement, the SC said the MOU sought to strengthen cooperation and develop deeper ties between the capital market regulators of Qatar and Malaysia, and reiterates their commitment to strengthen cross-border enforcement and enhance overall investor protection.

Zarinah said that in an increasingly complex financial environment, it was important for regulators to continue to strengthen their cooperative networks through greater information-sharing and collaboration in capacity building.

Al-Shaibi said the MOU clarified the importance of the exchange of technical support between the Authorities in matters relating to the regulation of the securities industries.'' "The Authorities will also work together to determine the training and technical needs for the development of the stock markets for both countries, subject to the availability the appropriate expertise and resources,' he said.

The MoU establishes a framework for assistance and mutual cooperation to facilitate the supervision and enforcement of the respective capital markets in Malaysia and Qatar, the exchange of technical knowledge as well as collaboration in areas of mutual interest between the two regulators.

The SC has signed 29 MoUs with regulatory counterparts since 1994 as part of its commitment to strengthen international cooperation in securities regulation.

The SC is also a signatory to the International Organisation of Securities Commission's Multilateral Memorandum of Understanding, a global information-sharing arrangement among securities regulators.


Ramunia inks joint manufacturing agreement with S.Korea's DMC

KUALA LUMPUR: RAMUNIA HOLDINGS BHD []'s wholly owned subsidiary O&G Works Sdn Bhd (OGW) has signed a joint manufacturing agreement with Dongnam Marine Crane Co Ltd (DMC) from South Korea.

It said on Friday, Dec 3 that the agreement was to undertake the joint manufacturing of cranes including offshores cranes, marines cranes, floating cranes, deck cranes, Special Davits and deck machineries of DMC in the marine and offshore oil & gas exploration and production fields of application in Malaysia, using the 'Dong Nam' Brand and design.

DMC is an offshore crane and deck crane professional manufacturer that owns a yard with facilities to carry out all range of crane manufacturing and fabrication works.

Ramunia said the agreement was exclusive to OGW to a period of five years and was for the provision of all the relevant technical information and training required for the manufacturing of the products in Malaysia.

It said the fabrication of the products wouldl be undertaken jointly by both parties.


FBM KLCI dips on mild profit taking

KUALA LUMPUR: The FBM KLCI slipped into negative territory but managed to stay above the psychologically crucial 1,500-point level at the close on Friday, Dec 3 as local stocks succumbed to some mild profit taking.

The gains at most key regional markets were limited as the Hong Kong and Shanghai markets fell into negative territory.

The Shanghai Composite Index slipped into the red on reports citing an academic advisor to the central bank as saying that China would gradually shift to a tighter monetary policy next year, and that it needed to slow money-supply growth.

Also, the HSCC purchasing managers' index for the China services sector fell to a 23-month low of 53.1 in November from 56.4 in October.

Also, data released by the US Labor Department showed that in the week ending Nov 27, initial jobless claims increased by 26,000 to 436,000 from 410,000 in the prior week.

The FBM KLCI closed 0.15% or 2.24 points lower at 1,500.98. Losers led gainers by 450 to 282, while 291 counters traded unchanged. Volume was 966.19 million shares valued at RM1.64 billion.

At the regional markets, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.55% to 23,320.52, the Shanghai Composite Index was down 0.04% to 2,842.43 and the Singapore Straits Times shed 0.8% to 3,172.44.

Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 0.10% to 10,178.32, Taiwan's Taiex rose 0.45% to 8,624.01 and South Korea's Kospi added 0.36% to 1,957.26.

The top loser was Far East Corp that fell 20 sen to RM6.90; Lafarge Malayan Cement fell 18 sen to RM7.42, Fima Corp lost 17 sen to RM5.38, Top Glove, Gamuda and IJM lost 15 sen each to RM5.60, RM3.75 and RM5.98 respectively, Milux and Hong Leong Financial Group down 14 sen each to RM1.35 and RM9, EON Capital fell 12 sen to RM6.94 and Sungei Bagan down 11 sen to RM3.13.

Gainers included BAT, Nestle, KLK, Tasek, GAB, Tradewinds, Batu Kawan, Genting amd RHB Capital.

The actives included Scomi, Sinotop, Key West, Petronas Chemicals, Karambunai, DRB-Hicom, Axiata and K-Star Sports.


RAM Ratings reaffirms AA1 rating of Mid Valley City's RM200 million debt facility, with ...

KUALA LUMPUR: RAM Ratings has reaffirmed the AA1 rating of Mid Valley City Sdn Bhd's (MVC) RM200 million nominal value Medium-Term Notes Programme (MTN), with a stable outlook.

The reaffirmation is premised on the transaction's structural features, the supporting credit enhancement and healthy performance of the underlying asset - Mid Valley Megamall (Megamall), it said in a statement Friday, Dec 3.

MVC is a wholly owned subsidiary of KrisAssets Holdings Berhad (KrisAssets), which is in turn the property-investment arm of IGB Corporation Berhad ' the ultimate parent company of MVC and Mid Valley Capital Sdn Bhd (MVCap).

MVC is also the owner and operator of Megamall. As such, the primary source of repayment for the MTN stems from the cashflow generated by Megamall.

The rating agency said that in FY Dec 2009, Megamall's pre-tax operating cash flow came up to RM157.86 million (6.8% higher year-on-year) vis-''-vis RAM Ratings' sustainable cash flow assumption of RM116 million.

'The better showing is mainly attributable to Megamall's higher average rental rate (ARR) and broader operating margins.

'We envisage upward potential for Megamall's ARR given the management's continuous efforts to enhance the tenancy mix and property profile of the mall; Megamall's property profile is considered above average, as indicated by RAM Ratings' property score of R-4.40,' it said.

RAM Ratings said under this transaction, the MTN holders would have a first-party, second-ranking charge over Megamall, sharing the same security as the RM400 million Redeemable Secured Bonds (MVCap Bonds) issued by MVCap, and the provider of the Standby Letter of Credit (SBLC) for KrisAssets' RM200 million Bank-Guaranteed Bonds (BG Bonds).

The rights of the MTN holders are subordinated to those of the holders of the MVCap Bonds, but are superior to those of the SBLC provider for the BG Bonds, i.e. DBS Bank Limited (Labuan) ' in terms of both cashflow priority and security ranking, it said.

'With further deleveraging of the MVCap Bonds in September 2010, coupled with the healthy cashflow generated by Megamall, the loan-to-value ratio and debt service coverage ratio for MVC's MTN stood at 30.2% and 2.9 times, respectively.

'RAM Ratings notes that MVC has only issued RM20 million of its RM200 million MTN to date,' it said.


Limited gains on FBM KLCI at mid-day

KUALA LUMPUR: The FBM KLCI pared down some of its gains at the mid-day break on Friday, Dec 3 and was up marginally by 0.04% or 0.63 points to 1,503.85, supported by the gains including at BAT, KLK, Genting and YTL.

The Shanghai Composite Index slipped into the red on reports citing an academic advisor to the central bank as saying that China would gradually shift to a tighter monetary policy next year, and that it needed to slow money-supply growth.

Also, the HSCC purchasing managers' index for the China services sector fell to a 23-month low of 53.1 in November from 56.4 in October.

Retail investors, who account for more than two-thirds of turnover, tend to buy'' and sell specific sectors in a herd-like manner, with a focus on policy measures key in making trading decisions, according to Reuters.

On Bursa Malaysia, losers overtook gainers by 343 to 278, while 265 counters traded unchanged as some mild profit taking emerged after the Shanghai Composite Index slipped into negative territory earlier this morning, while gains at other key regional markets were limited.

Volume was 489.97 million shares valued at RM708.53 million.

The ringgit strengthened 0.18% to 3.1474 versus the US dollar; crude palm oil for the third month delivery rose RM21 to RM3,474, gold jumped US$4.77 an ounce to US$1,389.95 while crude oil slipped 20 cents per barrel to US$87.80.

On Bursa Malaysia this morning, the top gainer was BAT that added 88 sen to RM45.30; KLK rose 46 sen to RM21.44, Tradewinds up 36 sen to RM5.32, GAB and Batu Kawan rose 24 sen each to RM9.60 and RM16.26, Genting up 20 sen to RM10.60, while Nestle, APM Automotive and YTL added 12 sen each to RM43.70, RM5.32 and RM8.40, respectively.

Sinotop was the most actively traded counter with 21.3 million shares done. The stock added half a sen to 13.5 sen. Other actives included DRB-Hicom, Tradewinds Corp, Karambunai and K-Star Sports.

Losers included Milux, Lafarge Malayan Cement, Hong Leong Bank, Fima Corp, Gamuda, EON Capital, HLFG, IJM Corp, Hap Seng and Sungei Bagan.

At the regional markets, Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 0.12% to 10,180.36, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index added 0.18% to 23,490.44, Taiwan's Taiex rose 0.64% to 8,640.89, Singapore's Straits Times Index gained 0.15% to 3,202.75, the South Korean Kospi up 0.04% to 1,951.03 while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.47% to 2,830.29.


Telekom Malaysia disposes 90m Axiata shares for RM414m

KUALA LUMPUR: ''Telekom Malaysia has placed out 90 million Axiata Group Bhd shares for RM414 million or RM4.60 apiece to third-party institutional investors.

In a filing to Bursa Malaysia on Friday, Dec 3, TM said that the gain on the disposal was RM209.7 million.

TM on Dec 2 had said it planned to of 191.458 million Axiata shares for RM879.4 million. The shares would represent 2.27% equity interest in Axiata held by its unit TM ESOS Management Sdn Bhd (TEMSB).

TEMSB now holds 101.458 million shares after the disposal, said TM.

TEMSB was the trustee for TM's previous employee share option scheme, under which options over ordinary shares in both TM and Axiata were granted to eligible employees of the TM group of companies.

The ESOS expired on Sept 16, 2010.'' The sale shares consist of the remaining Axiata shares held by TEMSB not offered to employees or for which options were unexercised and consequentially lapsed under the ESOS.

'Assuming that all 191.458 million sale shares are disposed at a sale price of RM4.593 per share (being the five-day volume-weighted average market price for Axiata shares up to and including Dec 1), the proceeds raised from the proposed disposal will be approximately RM879.4 million,' it said.

TM said it would use the proceeds raised under the proposed disposal for working capital, capital expenditure, investments and/or acquisitions, including the repayment of borrowings


Petra Energy unit gets RM400m job from Petronas Carigali

KUALA LUMPUR: PETRA ENERGY BHD []'s wholly owned subsidiary Petra Resources Sdn Bhd has been awarded a contract worth a total RM400 million by Petronas Carigali Sdn Bhd (PCSB) for the provision of hook-up and commissioning of PCSB offshore facilities.

In a filing to Bursa Malaysia on Friday, Dec 3, Petra Energy said the scope of work comprised onshore preparation works, onshore pre-fabrication and yard commissioning (if any), and onshore and offshore hook-up, inspection, testing, pre-commissioning and commissioning of all systems, related appurtenances and equipment of offshore facilities.

It said Petra Resources would provide materials, tools, equipment, consumables, manpower and supervision, marine vessels, transportation and other services necessary to perform the work.

It said the contract period was from Dec 2, 2011 until Dec 1, 2012.

'Petra Resources estimates the total value of the contract to be approximately RM400 million over the duration of the contract.

'However, the contract is a 'call-up contract' made up of work orders, which will be awarded at the discretion of PCSB during the duration of the contract, and the values of the work orders are based on the contract schedule of rates,' said Petra Energy.

The company said the contract was expected to contribute positively to its earnings for the financial year ending Dec 31, 2011 and the subsequent financial periods within the duration of the contract.


FBM KLCI stays above 1,500-level but gains limited as Shanghai slips

KUALA LUMPUR: The FBM KLCI extended its positive run ''in early trade On Friday, Dec 3 in line with the higher overnight close at Wall Street but ''the gains were limited as the Shanghai Composite Index slipped into negative territory on speculation of tighter monetary policy next year.

US stocks extended their gains on Wall Street yesterday after a stream of positive US retail and housing data raised hopes for a swift recovery in the world's biggest economy.

US retailers reported higher-than-forecast sales for November, while initial weekly claims for jobless benefits fell to a two-year low.

Reuters also reported that China's purchasing managers' index for the non-manufacturing sector fell to a nine-month low of 53.2 in November from 60.5 in October.

It remained above the 50 level, indicating that service industries are still expanding, although at a slower pace, it said.

On Bursa Malaysia, the FBM KLCI was up 2.82 points to 1,506.04, lifted by gains including at KLK, BAT, YTL and Genting.

Gainers led losers by 234 to 164, while 205 counters traded unchanged. Volume was 230.28 million shares valued at RM252.82 million.

Maybank Investment Bank Bhd head of retail research and chief chartist Lee Cheng Hooi in a note to clients on Dec 3 said due to the firm US markets last night, the FBM KLCI may be in a volatile mode, with initial buying activities that may see some profit-taking in the later part of the day.

'Global market trends may have become volatile recently but we may have turned a corner at the 1,474-low as market focus is on the more positive USA economic figures, rather than Euro zone's debt woes,' he said.

Among the early gainers today, KLK was up 56 sen to RM21.54, BAT rose 48 sen to RM44.90, Tradewinds gained 30 sen to RM5.26, Batu Kawan up 28 sen to RM16.30, GAB added 19 sen to RM9.55, APM automotive rose 18 sen to RM5.38, YTL gained 12 sen to RM8.40 while Genting rose eight sen to RM10.48.

Losers included Hong Leong Bank, Lafarge Malayan Cement, RHB Capital, Gamuda, Petronas Gas, Jerneh, Nestle and IJM Corp.

Sinotop was the most actively traded counter with 20.7 million shares done. The stock gained half a sen to 13.5 sen. Other actives included Karambunai, DRB-Hicom and Transmile.

At the regional markets, gains were limited as the Shanghai Composite Index slipped into the red on reports citing an academic advisor to the central bank as saying that China would gradually shift to a tighter monetary policy next year, and that it needed to slow money-supply growth.

The Shanghai Composite Index slipped 0.10% to 2,840.86. '' Elsewhere, Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 0.14% to 10,182.25, Taiwan's Taiex added 0.60% to 8,636.93, Singapore's Straits Times Index gained 0.28% to 3,206.76, South Korea's Kospi was up 0.06% to 1,951.48 while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index opened 0.4% higher at 23,544.47.


Forbes Asia names Tony Fernandes as Businessman of the Year 2010

KUALA LUMPUR: Forbes Asia has named AirAsia group CEO Datuk Seri Tony Fernandes as its 2010 Businessman of the Year in the magazine's December issue.

The 46-year old Fernandes is the pioneering chief executive officer of the region's largest low-cost carrier, which Forbes Asia described as one of Southeast Asia's hottest global brands.

In a statement Dec 3, Forbes Asia editor Tim Ferguson said the competition was tough, including from leaders of Forbes Asia's Fabulous 50 companies.

'Although several mainland Chinese entrepreneurs fully came into their own this year, in general they are still excelling in a single national market that is subject to domestic booms and busts.

'Fernandes is expanding his business outward,' said Ferguson.

Fernandes was quoted by the magazine as describing his vision as 'serving the underserved.'

'Generally Asia is about being the biggest, the best, the swankiest, the tallest, the richest. This is where Asian businesses have missed out.

'The cream is in the 65 million other people who don't have a chance to fly, who don't have credit cards or insurance. I always saw the masses,' he was quoted as saying.


International investment limps into 2011, says OECD report

KUALA LUMPUR: International investment remained flat well into the fourth quarter of 2010, but nonetheless represented an improvement over two years of steep declines in 2008 and 2009, according to the lead article in the latest issue of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's (OECD) Investment News bulletin.

In a statement Dec 2, the OECD projected that global Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows would decline by around 8% in 2010, a markedly better performance over the 19% drop in FDI flows seen in 2008 and the 43% decline in 2009.

If current trends hold, international M&A investment, an important component of FDI, will hover near US$ 670 billion in 2010, an increase of 6% over 2009, it said.

This would be the first increase in international M&A activity since 2007, following declines of 21% in 2008 and 53% in 2009, according to the report.

'Lacking any clear momentum of its own, international investment in 2011 will be particularly sensitive to the strength of the economic recovery across the global economy.

'It will also be sensitive to whether G20 countries can avoid investment protectionism or any further conflict over foreign exchange policies, which could create uncertainty over the pricing of international assets and the valuation of expected future income from these assets,' OECD said.


JAKS up on RM268m contract win

KUALA LUMPUR: Shares of JAKS Resources Bhd advanced in early trade on Friday, Dec 3 after its joint venture with IJM Corp Bhd secured the RM268 million contract for part of the Pahang-Selangor interstate raw water transfer project (IRWT).

At 9.15am, JAKS was up 3.5 sen to 73.5 sen with 2.93 million shares done.

IJM Corp, which had rallied in recent day, slipped nine sen to RM6.04.

The FBM KLCI rose 1.8 points to 1,505.02. Turnover was 89.09 million shares valued at RM75.92 million. Advancers beat decliners 173 to 57 while 112 stocks were unchanged.

AmResearch said the contract was for the Semantan Pipeline and related works.

'More importantly, we believe a successful roll-out of this package could put both IJM and JAKS in a position to also bid for the piping works under Langat 2 (the Selangor portion of the IRWT) worth RM800 million to RM900 million.

'But, the status of the RM5 billion project is still evolving due to uncertainties surrounding the restructuring of Selangor's fragmented water industry,' it said.


Blue chips advance, KLK, Batu Kawan extend gains

KUALA LUMPUR: Blue chips advanced in early trade on Friday, Dec 3 with KL Kepong and its major shareholder Batu Kawan extending their rally on expectations of buoyant crude palm oil prices and underpinned by the second day of gains on Wall Street.

At 9.29am, KLK rose 52 sen to RM21.50 while Batu Kawan added 24 sen to RM16.26.

The FBM KLCI rose 2.1 points to 1,505.32. Turnover was 131.29 million shares valued at RM127.12 million. There were 194 gainers, 88 losers and 150 stocks unchanged.

Other gainers were BAT, up 42 sen to RM44.84, Guinness Anchor 19 sen to RM9.55 while Genting added eight sen to RM10.48.

RHB Research Institute said in its market outlook that Thursday afternoon's push-up caught it by surprise, as the recovery came so timely to initiate a potential recovery on the otherwise bearish scenario on the local market sentiment.

'The rebound has led the FBM KLCI higher to above the 10-day and 40-day SMAs near 1,494 ' 1,497 and the important psychological level of 1,500. This has revived its near-term technical outlook, which could have already turned more bearish should it have not recovered yesterday,' it said.

However, RHB Research said the FBM KLCI must still acquire a confirmation candle today, and that the 10-day SMA must recover to above the 40-day SMA to void the previous bearish signal and secure a technical rebound going forward.

'As such, we would like to warn that a slip back to below the 1,500 level and the SMAs will tarnish any positive possibility and turn the index back into the bearish zone again,' it cautioned.


AmResearch: IJM, JAKS poised for Langat 2 piping works

KUALA LUMPUR: AmResearch sees more upside for JAKS Resources Bhd and IJM Corp Bhd after their 40:60 JV-partnership secured the Semantan Pipeline and related works under the Pahang-Selangor interstate raw water transfer project (IRWT) for an estimated RM268 million.

The research house said on Friday, Dec 3 that of significance is that latest contract represents the third major award for the Pahang portion of the IRWT ' following the tunnelling package (RM1.3bil) and Semantan intake pumping station and related works (RM318mil: main contractor ' George Kent ' Loh & Loh-Hazama JV ).

AmResearch said the remaining job yet to be tendered out is for the Kelau Dam worth over RM200mil, of which we understand that any decision would only be known in three months.

'More importantly, we believe a successful roll-out of this package could put both IJM and JAKS in a position to also bid for the piping works under Langat 2 (the Selangor portion of the IRWT) worth RM800 million to RM900 million. But, the status of the RM5 billion project is still evolving due to uncertainties surrounding the restructuring of Selangor's fragmented water industry,' it said.


OSK Research maintains FV for Glomac at RM1.84

KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research said Glomac's 1HFY11 results were spot on with its estimates and within consensus expectations when annualised.

It said on Friday, Dec 5 that after stripping out the RM4.9 million fair value gain on PROPERTIES [], its 1HFY11 turnover and core net profit improve significantly by 99% (+12% q-o-q) and 47% (+40% q-o-q) respectively on the back of higher progress billings from its high unbilled sales.

OSK Research said Glomac's latest unbilled sales stood at RM572 million (1.8 times FY10's turnover).

'Leaving our earnings forecast unchanged for now, we continue to value Glomac at RM1.84 based on 0.9 times CY11 P/NTA. Maintain BUY,' it said.


HDBSVR: Recovery of Bursa Malaysia to continue

KUALA LUMPUR: Hwang DBS Vickers Research said the recovery of the Malaysian bourse should continue on Friday, Dec 3 following an extended rally on Wall Street overnight where key U.S. equity indices were up between 0.9% and 1.3% at the closing bell lifted by optimistic economic data.

'Given the positive external backdrop, the benchmark FBM KLCI will probably pull further away from the psychological mark of 1,500, possibly heading towards its resistance level of 1,525,' it said.

HDBSVR said news flows on Friday include the release the external trade statistics for October with one media survey projecting exports slipping 0.9% y-o-y while imports would rise by 6.3% y-o-y, translating to a monthly trade surplus of RM7.9b.

On the corporate front, there could be added interest in: (a) Telekom Malaysia after it stated its intention to dispose of 191.5m shares or 2.3% stake in Axiata, potentially raking in a cash proceed of RM907m (based on Thursday's closing price); and (b) PPB Group following its announcement to issue new shares in a subsidiary company to Wilmar and acquire stakes in companies based in China from Wilmar.


OSK Research: Telekom Malaysia's valuations stretched

KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research said its fundamental view on Telekom Malaysia remains unchanged and it is retaining its NEUTRAL recommendation.

The research house said on Friday, Dec 3 that TM is trading at a stretched 20.1 times FY11 EPS, which is not justified given the structural erosion in its traditional fixed line business, competition risks in the mobile broadband segment and persistent margin pressure.

'Our target price of RM3.28 is 5% below the current share price,' it said, in its comments after TM proposed to undertake the disposal of up to 191.5 million Axiata shares which were previously issued as part of an ESOS programme, for which the options were not exercised and lapsed on Set 16.

The disposal will be carried out via a private placement executed through a book building exercise to institutional/sophisticated investors and/or in the open market.

'We are not surprised by the latest move, which is currently the talk of the investment community and consistent with its focus to monetise its non-core investments and assets. The key unknown is what management intends to do with the proceeds, which based on the last close of Axiata's shares, would work out to RM907.5 million (25 sen per TM share), giving a resultant gain on disposal of RM473 million (TM's cost of investment is RM2.27 for the 2.7% stake).

TM had said the proceeds would be used for working capital, investments and/or acquisitions, including the repayment of borrowings. TM is slated to repay a US$250 million (RM800 million) bond due by end-4Q10.


ECB resists pressure to announce new anti-crisis steps

FRANKFURT: The European Central Bank resisted pressure on Thursday, Dec 2 to announce a major bond-buying programme to contain the euro zone debt crisis, despite the risk it could disappoint investors worried about Portugal and Spain.

The ECB had faced calls to rush through new anti-crisis measures at its monthly policy meeting after an 85 billion-euro ($110.7-billion) EU-IMF rescue of Ireland failed to dispel fears that other indebted countries in the single currency area could soon require a bailout.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said the bank had decided to keep interest rates on hold and extended its liquidity safety net for vulnerable euro zone banks, but made no mention of increasing its government bond buying programme.

The ECB started purchasing bonds through its Securities Market Programme (SMP) in May, after Greece was bailed out. Trichet said the policy would continue but declined further comment on it.

"I say we are constantly alert. We are constantly looking at the situation of the markets," Trichet told a news conference.

"The Securities Market Programme is ongoing, I repeat -- ongoing ... I won't comment on the observations of market participants."

The premium investors demand to buy Portuguese and Irish debt over German benchmarks fell on Thursday with traders saying the ECB had been buying the two countries' bonds.

Suggestions that the ECB could agree new measures helped the euro stabilise and lifted stock markets, but analysts said any failure to announce new action could disappoint investors.

The euro fell and Bund futures hit a session high after Trichet gave no indication the ECB was considering increasing its government bond buying programme.

German Economy Minister Rainer Bruederle said before the ECB's meeting that extra liquidity alone would not resolve Europe's problems and described the last U.S. fiscal stimulus package, injecting more money into the economy, as excessive.

"Permanently printing money is not the solution," German Economy Minister Bruederle said. "The money presses must not fall into the hands of politicians."

''

EURO IN DANGER?

Some economists say the future of the euro is in doubt and fear contagion to Asia and the United States.

International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn, visiting India, said the situation in Europe was "serious" and the IMF was ready to provide financial and technical support to member states if needed.

But EU leaders deny the euro will collapse and dismissed reports on Thursday that they would call a special summit this weekend on the crisis.

Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said Madrid would not need to tap any European Union funds to help it through its debt problems.

A Spanish bond auction was well received, partly because of hopes linked to the ECB meeting, and Germany's Bruederle said there was a good chance Lisbon and Madrid would not need rescuing.

But even Germany, the euro zone's biggest economy, struggled to sell its bonds on Wednesday and Portugal's borrowing costs rose and some leaders are calling for close fiscal union -- tighter cooperation -- for the euro zone.

''

DIVISIONS IN ECB

Some investors said before Trichet's comments that it was too soon for any conclusive announcement of new action because of a fierce debate in the ECB about the merits of such action.

Bundesbank head Axel Weber has called for the programme to be scrapped and fellow ECB members have criticised the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to buy $600 billion of U.S. debt.

Some economists have urged the ECB to tear up its rule book and do all it can to protect the euro, particularly because governments seem to be running out of ideas about how to restore confidence in their monetary union.

Before the ECB meeting, markets in Asia followed with Japan's Nikkei scaling a five-month high and markets elsewhere in Asia-Pacific climbing 1.3 percent.

Euro zone officials have admonished markets for doubting the currency bloc's ability to solve its problems but radical ECB action is among the few options left.

Germany has resisted pressure from France and others to turn the euro zone into a "fiscal union," a step that could help the bloc address its economic imbalances but require members to sacrifice sovereignty for the good of the group.

But Zapatero called on Thursday for a "much more integrated fiscal policy" for the euro zone. - Reuters


S&P warns it may downgrade Greece in 3 months

NEW YORK: Standard & Poor's on Thursday, Nov 2 said it could cut Greece's BB-plus credit rating if it becomes clear that the proposed European Stability Mechanism (ESM) will favor public creditors to the detriment of private bond holders.

Greece, as a potential recipient of ESM funding, could have its ratings negativelly affected, S&P said, echoing a similar warning it issued earlier this week regarding Portugal's ratings.

A decision on whether to downgrade Greece will be made in the next three months, according to S&P. - Reuters


#Stocks to watch:* Telekom Malaysia, Jaks, Glomac, Tamadan

KUALA LUMPUR: With Wall Street extending its gains for the second day on Thursday, Dec 2, the positive sentiment is expected to continue to underpin buying interest in key regional markets including Bursa Malaysia.

At Bursa Malaysia, the FBM KLCI smashed through the key 1,500 level on Thursday, surging 17.8 points or 1.2% to close at 1,503.22.

The upbeat mood reflected also the large liquidity in the market as investors were quick to snap up riskier assets like equities on any sign of positive news, especially after the volatile and downbeat November.

Wall Street rallied for a second day on Thursday as concerns about Europe's sovereign debt crisis waned, giving investors the chance to add to positions in winners among banks and retailers, according to Reuters

More than two stocks rose for every decliner on the New York Stock Exchange, with bank stocks leading the way after Goldman Sachs said improving economic conditions will favor that sector.

The European Central Bank allayed some concerns of a growing euro-zone crisis with hefty purchases of Portuguese and Irish debt. The European Central Bank, however, said it did not plan to increase the size of its liquidity program at this time.

At Bursa, stocks to watch include TELEKOM MALAYSIA BHD [], Jaks Resources Bhd and IJM Corp Bhd, GLOMAC BHD [], TAMADAM BONDED WAREHOUSE BHD [] and PPB GROUP BHD [].

TM stands to gain RM444.7 million through the proposed sale of 191.46 million shares it holds in Axiata Group Bhd, or 2.27% stake via private placement or in the open market.

TM said assuming that all 191.458 million sale shares are disposed at a sale price of RM4.593 per share, the proceeds raised from the proposed disposal will be approximately RM879.4 million.

JAKS Resources and its joint venture partner IJM Corporation have accepted the award for the RM268.53 million Pahang-Selangor raw water transfer project.

Glomac's earnings rose 70% to RM15.88 million in the second quarter ended Oct 31, from RM9.3 million a year ago, boosted by contributions from on-going progress completion from Glomac Tower and Glomac Cyberjaya.

Revenue rose 86% to RM140.89 million from RM75.63 million a year ago while earnings per share were 5.44 sen versus 3.26 sen.

For the first half, net profit rose 78.4% to RM31.4 million from RM17.64 million.

The Edge FinancialDaily reports logistics and in-flight catering services provider Tamadam Bonded Warehouse Bhd is said to contemplate spinning off its loss-making warehousing business and selling it to Amanah Raya Bhd.

Meanwhile, The Edge FD also reports PPB Group Bhd has proposed an issuance of 55.78 million new shares of RM1 each in one of its subsidiaries to Wilmar International Ltd in return for the option to potentially acquire equity interests in Wilmar's China subsidiaries.

''

''


Wall St rallies as euro concerns ease, data eyed

NEW YORK: Wall Street rallied for a second day on Thursday, Dec 2 as concerns about Europe's sovereign debt crisis waned, giving investors the chance to add to positions in winners among banks and retailers.

More than two stocks rose for every decliner on the New York Stock Exchange, with bank stocks leading the way after Goldman Sachs said improving economic conditions will favor that sector.

The European Central Bank allayed some concerns of a growing euro-zone crisis with hefty purchases of Portuguese and Irish debt. The European Central Bank, however, said it did not plan to increase the size of its liquidity program at this time.

The KBW bank index shot up 3.9 percent. The S&P 500 financial index rose 2.6 percent, making it the largest gainer among S&P sectors.

"The fears had been centered on Europe. That seems to have stabilized, and now the focus is on what domestic and international growth will look like. People are betting that growth will be better than people had feared," said Mark Bronzo, portfolio manager at Rydex-SGI in Irvington, New York.

Retailers' shares rose on stronger-than-expected November sales data, which reflects a healthy start to the holiday shopping season. The S&P 500 retail index rose 1.8 percent.

The data follows a recent flurry of reports suggesting a pick-up in U.S. economic activity that has let investors worry less about troubles overseas.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 106.63 points, or 0.95 percent, to 11,362.41. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 15.46 points, or 1.28 percent, to 1,221.53. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 29.92 points, or 1.17 percent, to 2,579.35.

Further supporting financial shares, Goldman Sachs Group Inc said U.S. banks are on stronger footing because of an improving economy, higher equity prices and a favorable interest-rate environment.

Shares of regional lender Marshall & Ilsley Corp jumped 12.3 percent to $5.48 and Bank of America Corp gained 3.5 percent to $11.68.

Home builders' stocks rose as an index of pending home sales unexpectedly climbed in October, hinting the economic recovery had started to stabilize. The Dow Jones U.S. Home CONSTRUCTION [] index advanced 3.7 percent.

Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at BlackRock, said an easing of fears over Europe meant investors could focus on the strengthening economic picture, which was showing a "continuation of this modest and noticeable improvement."

"Contrast it with the summer months when a double-dip was in everybody's vocabulary, and lo and behold, things start getting a little bit better," he said.

Data showed U.S. retailers reported higher-than-forecast sales for November, while the four-week moving average for initial weekly claims for jobless benefits fell to a fresh two-year low, though new requests rose for the week.

PepsiCo Inc agreed to buy Russian juice and dairy producer Wimm-Bill-Dann. U.S.-traded shares of Wimm-Bill-Dann surged 27.9 percent to $31.34. In contrast, PepsiCo's stock slipped 0.7 percent to $65.20.

The Dow and the S&P 500 scored their biggest one-day percentage gains in three months on Wednesday as optimism about efforts to resolve the European Union's debt crisis helped push the S&P above 1,200.

If the S&P 500 continues to hold above 1,200, the market will see strong resistance at 1,225-1,230, which coincides with a recent two-year high and the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the benchmark's slide from October 2007 to March 2009, a key technical indicator. - Reuters


Thursday, December 2, 2010

Stocks rebound, KLCI surges past 1,500

KUALA LUMPUR: Key Asian markets rebounded on Thursday, Dec 2, as expectations grew the European Central Bank might deliver measures to alleviate worries over euro zone debt, closing with gains up to 3.7%.

At Bursa Malaysia, the FBM KLCI surged 17.8 points or 1.2% to close at 1,503.22. Turnover was 979.25 million shares valued at RM1.78 billion. Advancers beat losers more than two to one. The upbeat mood reflected also the large liquidity in the market as investors were quick to snap up riskier assets like equities on any sign of positive news, especially after the volatile and downbeat November.

Sentiment was upbeat in key regional markets while European marketswere also up in early trade.'' The main Philippine share index surged 3.7% to its highest since Nov 25.

Jakarta's Composite Index climbed more than 2%,'' the Nikkei 225 1.81% to 10,168.52, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index 0.86% to 23,448.78 and Shanghai Composite Index 0.71% to 2,843.61. Singapore's Straits Times Index added 0.5% to 3,197.96,

Reuters reported investors piled into palm planters in the region as Malaysian palm oil futures hit a 28-month high before closing at RM3,500 a tonne.

The CPO futures tracked firmer global commodity markets, where there were concerns about low production during the monsoon season.

At Bursa, Sime Darby climbed 20 sen to RM8.83, adding2.85 points to the 30-stock FBM KLCI, Axiataand CIMB rose 13 sen each to Rm4.74 and RM8.51, nudging the index by a total of 4.88 points.

Aside from PLANTATION [] heavyweight Sime Darby, the other main gainers were plantation stocks including KL Kepong, up 42 sen to RM20.98, United Plantations 30 sen to RM17.30 and Batu Kawan 26 sen to RM16.02.

Infrastructure-based IJM rallied 33 sen to Rm6.13 with 10.8 million and Gamuda 26 sen to RM3.90 on as they were the frontrunners for the infrastructure jobs under the Economic Transformation Programme.


Telekom Malaysia to dispose of 191.4m Axiata shares for RM879.4m

KUALA LUMPUR: TELEKOM MALAYSIA BHD [] plans to dispose of 191.458 million Axiata Group Bhd shares for RM879.4 million.

TM said on Thursday, Dec 2 the shares would represent 2.27% equity interest in Axiata held by its unit TM ESOS Management Sdn Bhd (TEMSB).

TEMSB was the trustee for TM's previous employee share option scheme, under which options over ordinary shares in both TM and Axiata were granted to eligible employees of the TM group of companies.

The ESOS expired on Sept 16, 2010.'' The sale shares consist of the remaining Axiata shares held by TEMSB not offered to employees or for which options were unexercised and consequentially lapsed under the ESOS.

'Assuming that all 191.458 million sale shares are disposed at a sale price of RM4.593 per share (being the five-day volume-weighted average market price for Axiata shares up to and including Dec 1), the proceeds raised from the proposed disposal will be approximately RM879.4 million,' it said.

TM said it would use the proceeds raised under the proposed disposal for working capital, capital expenditure, investments and/or acquisitions, including the repayment of borrowings.


Newco for SunCity-Sunway to shoulder heavier debt burden, says RAM

KUALA LUMPUR: The new company (Newco) taking over the merged SUNWAY CITY BHD [] and SUNWAY HOLDINGS BHD [] will have to shoulder a heavier debt burden, says RAM Ratings Bhd.

Apart from their combined borrowings of RM1.3 billion as at end-September 2010, 'the Newco will need to raise another RM915 million of debt to fund the cash portion of its offer (80% of the offer will be funded via equity), it said on Thursday, Dec 2.

The ratings agency said this was estimated to translate into gross and net gearing ratios of about 0.6 times and 0.4 times, respectively.

'This ratio may move up progressively as the aggregate debts of the two entities are projected to rise to some RM2.0 billion-RM2.7 billion; nevertheless, this expectation may change, depending on Newco's future funding plans,' it said.

Based on RAM Ratings' preliminary assessment, Newco's stronger business profile should balance its weaker financial metrics. As such, its credit standing is not expected to deviate much from the credit profiles of Suncity and Sunway Holdings.

Sunway Sdn Bhd a private limited company, owned by Tan Sri Jeffrey Cheah ' founder of the larger Sunway Group ' and Sarena Cheah, had launched a corporate exercise to merge Suncity and Sunway Holdings.

The Newco had made a RM4.5 billion offer for the assets and liabilities of the two companies.

RAM Ratings said there was no immediate impact on the ratings and outlook SunCity's RM500 million debt notes and Sunway Holdings Bhd's RM500 million debt notes.

The debt notes are SunCity's RM500 million Murabahah commercial'' papers/medium-term notes programme (or Islamic CP/MTN) which have been rated at A2/P1, Stable.

Also included are Sunway Holdings' RM500 million CP/MTN 2010/2017. They comprise of up to RM100 million which will be guaranteed by OCBC Bank (Malaysia) Bhd for up to five years (Tranche 1),'' up to RM100 million guaranteed by RHB Bank Bhd for up to five years and up to RM300 million unguaranteed portion. They were rated AAA(bg)/ P1(bg);'' AA2(bg)/ P1(bg) and A2/P2 with stable outlook.

RAM Ratings said should the proposed offer be accepted and the exercise successfully completed, RAM Ratings expects synergistic benefits to arise from the merger.

Suncity is an established property developer within the upper-middle and high-end segments of the property market; its business profile is supported by stable rental income from its pool of investment PROPERTIES [] as well as dividend income and management fees from the Sunway Real-Estate Investment Trust (REIT).

Meanwhile, Sunway Holdings' forte is in the CONSTRUCTION [] business; it is also involved in quarry operations, trading and manufacturing, and property development.

The merger will create a larger and vertically integrated entity (Newco) with an entire value chain, encompassing both upstream to downstream activities, primarily in the property and construction businesses.

'We believe that Newco will be better poised to undertake bigger property projects and bid for larger construction contracts, both local and global.

RAM Ratings said as with any merger, integration risk cannot be entirely discounted. Nevertheless, both entities share similar cultures, having operated under the Sunway umbrella and with ongoing collaborations. This partly moderates the integration risk of this corporate manoeuvre.

At this juncture, this corporate exercise is not expected to have any immediate rating impact on the two entities' debt issues, pending further details such as more clarity on the management's plans vis-''-vis the debt facilities, which could entail their restructuring.

As this corporate exercise will breach some of the covenants under the two debt issues, bondholders' approval will also have to be sought in due course.

'RAM Ratings will maintain close monitoring of the relevant developments on the proposed offer. We will make the appropriate announcement once there is greater clarity,' it said.


JAKS-IJM JV accepts RM268.5m Pahang-Selangor raw water transfer project

KUALA LUMPUR: JAKS Resources Bhd and its joint venture partner IJM CORPORATION BHD [] have accepted the award for the RM268.53 million Pahang-Selangor raw water transfer project.

JAKS said on Thursday, Dec 2 its unit JAKS Sdn Bhd and IJM CONSTRUCTION [] Sdn Bhd had signed and accepted the letter of acceptance from the Ministry of Energy, Green TECHNOLOGY [] and Water.

The completion date of the project is May 30, 2014.


Glomac 2Q earnings up 70% at RM15.88m

KUALA LUMPUR: GLOMAC BHD []'s earnings rose 70% to RM15.88 million in the second quarter ended Oct 31, from RM9.3 million a year ago, boosted by contributions from on-going progress completion from Glomac Tower and Glomac Cyberjaya.

It said on Thursday, Dec 2 that revenue rose 86% to RM140.89 million from RM75.63 million a year ago while earnings per share were 5.44 sen versus 3.26 sen.

For the first half, net profit attributable to shareholders grew 78.4% to RM31.4 million from RM17.64 million while revenue jumped 98.5% to RM267.2 million from RM134.6 million.

The stronger performance was attributed to contributions from Glomac's multiple successful projects such as Glomac Tower, Glomac Damansara, Glomac Cyberjaya, Bandar Saujana Utama and Seri Bangi at Bandar Baru Bangi.

Unbilled sales as at the end of October 2010 remains high at RM572 million, and this remains as one of the key earnings growth drivers for the group going forward.


Investors see property prospects in Asia despite measures

HONG KONG/SINGAPORE: Asian governments have imposed a raft of measures aimed at preventing their property markets from taking off too quickly, but the region still offers investors some of the most prospective real estate globally, according to a Reuters report on Thursday, Dec 2.

House prices in Asia have doubled in many cases in the past two years. So after various measures to take the heat out of markets, especially in China and Hong Kong, it is almost inevitable that returns will cool next year.

But beyond that, price growth should pick up once again off the back of Asia's traditional attractions for real estate investors; enviable economic growth, a steady rise in currency values and importantly, increasing urbanisation in several countries.

Analysts see prices rising again between 5 percent and 10 percent in 2012.

Still, there is no sign yet of a slowdown in capital coming into the Asia property markets. Indeed, investment is speeding up, figures from property services firm CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) show.

That in part reflects the surge in capital flooding into the region as investors turn their backs on the uncertainties of developed countries to lock in gains from fast-growing Asia.

In the first three quarters of 2010, direct real estate investments in Asia totalled $46 billion, double the amount in the same period in 2009, CBRE, which has an extensive network in the region, said.

In the third quarter alone, investment jumped 53 percent from the second quarter, a stark contrast to Europe, where investment fell 6 percent. About 17 percent of Asia's total investment in the third quarter came from outside the domestic markets, up from 14 percent in the previous quarter.

CBRE's Executive Director Andrew Ness reckons full-year investments will exceed $60 billion, up sharply from $37.8 billion last year.

"It's still a very much Asian-led rebound. The Americans and Europeans are beginning to come in and enquiring more," Ness said.

However, with regulators increasingly clamping down on property markets to prevent bubbles forming, such as with tighter lending requirements for property purchases, the 2011 investment climate looks less certain.

Reflecting this, property stocks in Asia have come off their peaks and Ness declined to forecast any investment flows for next year.

But over the longer term, Asian markets offer less uncertainty than the United States or Europe, which will support the market, many analysts say.

U.S. home prices, which have plunged by a third since their 2006 peak, will only inch up in 2011 due to a stream of foreclosures and high joblessness, a Reuters poll shows.

House prices in Britain will fall, the Reuters poll shows.

Beyond next year, the economies of developed nations are expected to grow only sluggishly in coming years as they deal with the heavy debt loads built up during the financial crisis.

So even with tightening regulations, Asia offers brighter prospects over a three to five year horizon, some investors say.

"We tend to still like residential as an asset class, it's just a matter of time," said an industry source who invests in property in Asia.

"We're looking at a lot of deals and we're deciding that now it's not the right time. We may monitor the situation for the next three to six months," he said, declining to be identified as he was not authorised to speak to the media.

''

URBANISATION

One investor looking to lock into Asia's relatively brighter prospects is British property firm Grosvenor , which manages the estate of the Duke of Westminster.

"We're gradually putting more capital into the region," said the firm's chief executive, Mark Preston. "Because of the QE, we (the western world) have got a lot of money looking to find a home in safe places and property offers that tangible asset at a time of uncertainty."

Privately held Grosvenor plans to increase Asia's contribution to its total net asset value to 10 percent in the next three years from 6-7 percent now.

One of the biggest long-term Asian attractions for property investors is the rapid pace of urbanisation in many countries, which is also a significant contributor to economic growth.

In China, for example, the urban population is 46.6 percent of the total 1.3 billion population, but is expected to cross the 50 percent mark in the next few years as between 13 million and 19 million people migrate to cities each year.

Several countries have a growing workforce. In India, for example, the workforce is expected to expand by 270 million people in the next 20 years. China's working population is due to peak in 2015.

Most Asian currencies have risen steadily against the dollar and that is expected to continue next year, offering some comfort over exchange rate risk. The Chinese yuan , Singapore dollar and Malaysian ringgit are seen rising 2 percent to 4 percent next year, Reuters polls show.

Property is also a favourite of domestic investors and culturally most Asians prefer to own, rather than rent, their homes, making it easier for foreign investors to exit a portfolio if needed.

"Money in the banking system is earning very low policy returns so it's going into property as there's a lack of other good investment instruments to park your money in," said Donald Han, vice chairman at global property services company Cushman and Wakefield.

"A lot of the markets -- China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore -- are predominantly run by the Chinese investors and in their DNA, it's all about real estate," Han said. - Reuters


MTD Capital up on expected RM150m gain from Philippines toll hike

KUALA LUMPUR: Shares of MTD CAPITAL BHD [] advanced on Thursday, Dec 2 as it stands to gain RM150m annually from Philippine toll hike in South Luzon Expressway.

At 3.44pm, it is up 31 sen to RM6.91 with 87,600 shares done.

The FBM KLCI is up 13.56 points to 1,498.98. Turnover is 713.8 million shares done valued at RM1.21 billion. There were 465 gainers, 260 losers and 288 stocks unchanged.

The Edge FinancialDaily reported on Wednesday that MTD Capital, Malaysia's second largest highway operator and owner, could rake in at least some RM150 million in annual toll revenue from the South Luzon Expressway (SLEX) in the Philippines next year if higher toll rates there are implemented in January 2011.

The Philippines' business paper BusinessWorld, quoting Julius G Corpuz, an official with the Philippines Toll Regulatory Board (TRB), reported that the implementation of higher toll rates could happen in the first week of January next year.

'Our lawyers just have to review the copy of the decision, convene a meeting the middle of next week to discuss whether to maintain or increase the existing proposed rates based on the project cost, present and projected traffic volume and operations and maintenance cost,' Corpuz was quoted as saying.

It was reported that the TRB would also review the proposed rates by tollway operator South Luzon Tollway Corp (SLTC) for the recently completed 7.5km link ' known as Toll Road Project 3 (TR3) ' between SLEX and the Southern Tagalog Arterial Road (STAR).


Stamford College gets shareholders' nod for diversification

KUALA LUMPUR: Tertiary education provider STAMFORD COLLEGE BHD [] has received its shareholders' approval to diversify into the steel manufacturing business.

The PN17-company which received a show-cause letter by Bursa to be delisted, received the shareholders' approval to diversify into steel manufacturing in at an EGM on Thursday, Dec 2, 2010.

According to the circular, the group said that steel manufacturing was a natural extension from its steel trading operations that were started in 2004 as a risk management to supplement the group's education income.

It said that it could capitalise on the experience of its steel division team of experienced personnel with more than 30 years in the industry.

The company had begin production of intermediate steel billets at its factory in Semenyih, which contributed profit after tax of RM144,000 at the back of RM5.44 million for the six months ended June 30, 2010.

However, Bursa had rejected Stamford's diversification as part of its regularisation plan as it had yet to demonstrate the ability to generate profits and positive cash flow. The company had since appealed.


Baneng expects proposed debt revamp ready by 3Q2011

KUALA LUMPUR: BANENG HOLDINGS BHD [] expects its proposed restructuring scheme, including debt revamp to be completed by the third quarter of 2011.

The company said on Thursday, Dec 2 it had submitted applications on the proposed restructuring scheme to the relevant authorities on Nov 29.

It expects to get the approvals from all relevant authorities by February, 2011 and complete the proposed capital reCONSTRUCTION [] by mid-May.

Baneng expected to offer the warrant to entitled shareholders under the offer for sale by early July and the completion of the debt revamp by mid-July.

The company is an affected listed issuer under Practice Note 17 of the Listing Requirements

In the latest audited financial statements for the financial year ended Dec 31, 2009, without qualifying its opinion, the company's auditors, Messrs Ernst & Young had drawn the attention to Baneng and its subsidiaries' losses of about RM75.5 million during the FYE 31 December 2009.

As at Dec 31, 2009, the group's current liabilities exceeded its current assets by approximately RM38 million. In addition, the group has defaulted in the repayment obligations for bank borrowings during the said year.

These conditions indicated the existence of a material uncertainty which may cast a significant doubt on the ability of the Group to continue as a going concern.

''


KLCI advances, 1,500-level still out of reach

KUALA LUMPUR:'' The FBM KLCI advanced on Thursday, Dec 2 in line with the gains at key regional markets following the firmer overnight close at Wall Street while global manufacturing picked up speed, boosted by China and Germany.

However, buying momentum was still insufficient for the KCLI to test the crucial 1,500 at the midday break. The 30-stock benchmark index was up 0.83% or 12.26 points to 1,497.68, lifted by gains including at Petronas Gas, BAT, PPB, CIMB and Maybank.

Gainers led losers by 423 to 211, while 293 counters traded unchanged. Volume was 508.73 million shares valued at RM825.62 million.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 soared more than 1.8% as Japanese firms raised capital spending in July-September for the first time in more than three years. However, profit and sales growth slowed, as a dip in demand both at home and abroad, spurred by a strong yen, clouds the economic outlook.

The 5% rise in capital spending in the third quarter, led by auto makers and electronic device makers, followed a 1.7% drop the previous quarter, according to Reuters.

''

Nikkei 225 +1.84% 10,171.49 Shanghai Composite Index +1.60% 2,868.49 Hang Seng Index +0.94% 23,468.91 Kospi +0.88% 1,946.36 Taiex +0.81% 8,588.83 Straits Times Index +0.58% 3,200.34 ''

''

The ringgit weakened 0.07% to 3.1540 versus the US dollar; gold jumped US$3.55 an ounce to US$1,391.45, crude oil slipped nine cents to US$86.66 while crude palm oil futures for the third month delivery gained RM37 per tonne to RM3,490.

Among the gainers, Nestle and MTD rose 30 sen each to RM43.60 and RM6.95, Petronas Gas added 26 sen to RM11.40, IJM Corp up 23 sen to RM6.03, Batu Kawan and BAT up 22 sen each to RM15.98 and RM44.40.

Guinness and Tradewinds rose 20 sen each to RM9.30 and RM4.94, PPB up 18 sen to RM17.78, CIMB rose 14 sen to RM8.52, DiGi up 12 sen to RM24.94 and Maybank up six sen to RM8.50.

K-Star Sports was the most activel with 20.5 million shares done. It fell 4.5 sen to 52.5 sen, extending its plunge from Wednesday.

Other actives included Petronas Chemicals, Karambunai, DRB-Hicom, JCY and Sinotop, while decliners included Quality Concrete and Far East Corp.


Current inflation picture in Asia: who is at risk?

KUALA LUMPUR:'' Following a swift recovery in Asia, along with the prospects of capital inflows into the region, many Asian central banks have voiced concerns about the risk of inflation.

By Q2-2010, the level of economic activity in all Asian economies had returned to pre-crisis levels. In some countries, such as China and Singapore, the current level of activity is 15-20% above pre-crisis levels in real terms.

Meanwhile, although policy rates have been raised in some Asian economies, they mostly remain below long-term averages after adjusting for inflation, with many real policy rates still negative.

For Asian currencies, with the exception of the Hong Kong dollar (HKD), all major Asian currencies have appreciated on a nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) basis in 2010. However, the HKD, Korean won (KRW), Indonesian rupiah (IDR), Indian rupee (INR) and Taiwan dollar (TWD) remain below their average nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) levels between 2003 and 2008.

This implies that there is still plenty of scope for interest-rate tightening as well as currency appreciation, in order to pre-empt the risk of consumer- and asset-price inflation.

We also note that Asia is vulnerable to global commodity prices, in particular food and energy, even though we do not expect these to experience a similar short-term spike to that in 2008. Economies with lower GDP per capita are particularly exposed, since they spend a higher proportion of their income on these basic necessities.

China has already flagged the possibility of price controls on selected food and energy products, as well as subsidies for low-income groups. However, the experience of 2008 suggests that these measures will not be effective if global commodity prices are sustained.

Taking into account the current policy stance and historical inflation volatility, we believe that Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand will be particularly vulnerable to a sudden pick-up in inflation.

Incidentally, Indonesia and Philippines have yet to tighten monetary policy in the current interest-rate cycle. Vietnam has been forced to hike its base rate to support the Vietnamese dong (VND). Such an inflation risk would force policy makers to become more hawkish in 2011.

From interest-rate normalisation to tightening

Taking stock of the current recovery, we note that all the Asian economies had made a full recovery from the global financial crisis by Q2-2010. In China, Singapore, India and Indonesia, the level of economic activity in Q2-2010 was 10- 20% above that of Q2-2008, the pre-crisis level.

That said, we note that growth momentum has slowed in some markets.

Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand contracted on a q/q basis in Q3; this was the second consecutive quarter of q/q contraction for Thailand. This weaker growth momentum is expected to extend into Q4-2010.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea have managed to maintain positive q/q growth, but their growth rates have also eased considerably. China and Indonesia are the two economies that have shown some resilience in their recovery momentum.

The deceleration is not surprising, since the inventory restocking in H1-2010 is coming to an end, and we have warned for some time that this one-off boost to growth would fade in H2-2010.

This is being reflected in the moderation in export growth. The important point is that local consumption momentum is still relatively strong, which will still require tightening action by central banks to pre-empt the risk of inflation in quarters ahead.

Job markets in the region have enjoyed a strong recovery. While unemployment rates, as shown in Chart 4, have yet to return to their pre-crisis lows, we observe that all the jobs lost during the crisis have been re-generated.

The positive wealth effect from asset markets, including equities and real estate, has also boosted Asian consumers' 'feel-good' factor. Strong consumption has facilitated headline expansion, but also raised the risk of demand-driven inflation in the region.

Real policy rates in Asia remain accommodative

The current real policy rates for Indonesia, Malaysia and Taiwan are broadly in line with their long-term averages, but not significantly higher.

Hence, these economies can be considered to have neutral interest-rate policies.

For the rest of the region, with real policy rates in outright negative territory, or remaining below their long-term averages, current interest rate policy stances are still accommodative; further tightening is required for interest rates to return to normal.

This does not necessarily imply that Malaysia, Indonesia and Taiwan can sit back and leave their interest-rate policies at current levels. Rising inflation is also pushing real policy rates lower in many economies in Asia.

''

The year-to-date change in the real policy rate has been negative in Asia, except for India, Thailand, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The drop in real policy rates is driven by higher inflation as well as tepid tightening by the respective central banks. Furthermore, if growth momentum surprises on the upside in coming quarters, the closing of the output gap will accelerate, which would call for even more aggressive action by Asian central banks.

In 2008, many central banks argued that higher inflation, led by an exogenous rise in commodity prices, could not be effectively handled by interest-rate policy.

They believed that the local cost of borrowing would have little impact on calming domestic food and energy prices, owing to the low elasticity of these daily necessities against changes in interest rates.

Hence, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, could be a more effective policy objective for central banks.

Yet in practice, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) is the only central bank in Asia that explicitly targets core inflation. The Bank of Korea (BoK), Bank Indonesia (BI) and Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) are the other three regional central banks that have explicit inflation targets using headline inflation.

Moreover, wage demand, as a function of inflation expectations, is likely to be driven by headline inflation instead of core inflation.

As a result of the improving labour-market conditions, wages are gradually rising. Singapore's average monthly earnings started to rise on a y/y basis in Q1-2010 after four consecutive quarters of decline. They rose 5.8% y/y in Q2-2010.

After contracting for three quarters between Q1-2009 and Q3-2009, Hong Kong's nominal wage index has also been improving, recording 2.2% y/y growth in Q2-2010. In some economies, such as Indonesia and Vietnam, headline inflation, instead of core inflation, is important to maintaining local investor confidence in the local currency. Sell-offs in the IDR and VND in the past were often triggered by a rise in inflation expectations, with local interest rates not sufficiently high to protect local-currency asset values.

Therefore, we believe central banks will need to consider raising borrowing costs, even though headline inflation is largely driven by commodity prices, to maintain investor confidence in local currencies.

Currency appreciation will help too

In addition to interest-rate tightening, some central banks in Asia tolerated currency strength in the first three quarters of 2010 to help mitigate imported inflation.

Currency appreciation will also help to manage capital inflows. In particular, India, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia have led the way in allowing their currencies to appreciate on a trade-weighted, or NEER, basis. These South East Asian currencies have also seen significant gains against the US dollar.

Currency appreciation in Asia did slow entering Q4-2010 as governments and central banks started to become concerned about the impact of currency strength on export performance, especially given the growing headwinds in the US and Europe.

From a historical perspective, the current NEER levels for the Singapore dollar (SGD), Thai baht (THB), Chinese yuan (CNY), Malaysian ringgit (MYR) and Philippine peso (PHP) are above their averages observed between 2003 and 2008 (Chart 8). Meanwhile, the current NEER levels of the IDR, INR, TWD, HKD and KRW remain below their long-term averages.

Taking into account prospects for capital inflows into Asia, we continue to expect Asian currencies to appreciate in 2011, although the extent of such appreciation will be determined by the appetite of central banks and governments. Observing the currency appreciation since the recovery and current levels versus historical averages, Taiwan and South Korea need to permit their currencies to play a much bigger role in fighting inflation.

Since we do not expect any change in the USD-HKD exchange rate link in the foreseeable future, macro-prudential measures, such as those aimed at cooling the domestic residential real-estate market, will have to lead the charge in combating asset-price inflation.

The current inflation picture in Asia: who is at risk?

Inflation across Asia has been generally stable, with the exception of China and Vietnam, where rising inflation trends are drawing the attention of local market participants.

In China's case, food inflation led to above-average headline CPI inflation between July and October.

This has already led to greater guidance from the authorities on controlling prices, as well as hikes in reserve requirements and interest rates. Vietnam's consumer price increase in September and October was also sizeable, with the food component contributing as much as 70% of headline inflation.

For the rest of the region, there is little immediate threat of inflation, but one should not be complacent over the speed of the inflation pick-up. In particular, headline inflation tends to correlate closely with food prices, because of the large share of food in household spending in the region. Higher inflation can also strain fiscal policy in the form of higher subsidy payouts and compensation for losses to state-owned enterprises if price controls are implemented.

Our commodity forecasts depict an orderly and modest rise in food and energy prices in 2011; these are factored into our inflation forecast for Asia. Yet, given the inflation spike in 2008 and the fact that underlying growth momentum in Asia continues to be robust, one needs to take into account the upside risk to inflation.

The volatility of inflation should also be noted. Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand have significant volatility in their consumer-price inflation which implies that the current benign environment could deteriorate more rapidly than other Asian economies. Inflation can rise with a vengeance.

This is essentially because of the greater proportion of household spending by these economies on food and energy, which leaves them exposed to the volatility of global commodity prices.

We also note that price controls, which may be effective in the short run to limit inflation, can exacerbate inflation volatility if the rise in global commodity prices is sustained.

Pent-up price pressure will eventually force the authorities, possibly because of the rapidly expanding fiscal burden of subsidies, to permit price rises. Leakage and smuggling also undermine the efficacy of price controls. One-off price increases in such circumstances are typically large, in order to restore market equilibrium.

The pick-up in lending growth

The picture of credit growth in Asia is mixed. In Hong Kong and Singapore, persistently low local interest rates led to an acceleration in lending growth in Q3 especially for the real estate sector.

This suggests that macro-prudential measures aiming at cooling property speculation have yet to be fully effective. These two economies hence remain the most vulnerable to a further ris e in lending growth.

Meanwhile, China's lending growth has decelerated, with Beijing scrutinising the quantity of new lending more closely. Lending growth in South Korea, the Philippines and Taiwan was modest in Q3, with less than 2% q/q growth in total credit outstanding.

Credit growth for India, Malaysia and Thailand stood at around 3%. Rising interest rates in these three economies, owing to monetary tightening by their central banks, have brought some moderation in lending growth relative to Q1 and Q2. Thailand's contraction in credit in Q2 can be attributed to the political unrest in Bangkok in April and May.

Alternative cooling strategies

In addition to policy-rate increases and currency appreciation, Asian governments are also looking at alternative measures to supplement monetary tightening to pre-empt the risk of inflation.

This is particularly important for economies that do not have an active interest-rate policy or whose current interest rate policies are restricted by country-specific issues.

Hong Kong and Singapore are the two economies where monetary policy is conducted via exchange rates instead of interest rates; this monetary policy framework has led to exceptionally low domestic borrowing costs.

Both governments have implemented measures to cool down their residential real estate markets.

FX implications

The FX implications of higher CPI inflation in Asia will depend on the policy response. The key question is wheth er the authorities will tighten monetary policy and allow currencies to appreciate to deal with higher CPI inflation. As a reference, we look at the period from September 2007 to June 2008, when food and energy prices rose sharply.

During this period, all Asia ex-Japan (AXJ) central banks, apart from Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), raised interest rates. Chart 15 lists the performance of AXJ currencies during this period. The SGD, CNY and TWD were the best performers, whereas the KRW was the worst performer. It should be noted that the sharp depreciation of the KRW from September 2007 to June 2008 was primarily driven by measures to curb short-term foreign borrowing.

In our view, higher CPI inflation will be most positive for the SGD, as Singapore's FX policy e xplicitly takes account of CPI inflation.

We expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to maintain its current tight exchange-rate policy in 2011, and see a 40% chance that the MAS will opt for further tightening, most likely via a one-off appreciation of the SGD by re-positioning the policy mid-point.

Faster CPI inflation should also be a positive for the CNY, TWD and KRW, as the authorities are likely to combine monetary tightening with exchange-rate appreciation to deal with imported inflation. In 2011, we expect the CNY, KRW and TWD to catch up with the strong 2010 performance of South East Asian currencies.

In contrast, we view upward surprises in CPI inflation as a negative for the VND, INR, PHP, IDR and THB. Vietnam's rampant CPI inflation, too-low interest rates and widening trade deficit will continue to put upward pressure on USD-VND in 2011.

There is a risk that Bank Indonesia (BI), BSP, the BoT and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will fall behind the curve in terms of raising interest, as they are concerned about driving further capital inflows. This will hurt local asset markets and hence currencies.

However, this is not our base case, as we forecast that CPI inflation will remain relatively muted in Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and India, whereas we expect Indonesia and the Philippines to raise interest rates in Q1-2011. Hence, for now, we maintain our short-term Overweight FX ratings on the IDR, PHP, THB and INR.

We see the currency implications of sharply rising CPI inflation as broadly neutral for the MYR and HKD. We expect BNM to raise interest rates in Q1, taking the policy rate to 3.50% by end-2011, which should dampen concerns that the central bank will fall behind the curve.

Rates implications

The two key factors to consider when gauging how inflation will impact Asian bond markets are: real yields and the dependence on foreign funding.

Real yields

From a valuation perspective, the lower real yields are, the less cushion they provide against an inflation shock. For example, if real yields are already close to zero, an inflation shock should urge investors to demand higher nominal yields to compensate. Conversely, if real yields are already very high, an inflation shock may have less of an impact, as investors may not necessarily demand higher yields, as returns are still attractive.

In most countries, real yields are lower than long-term averages, which is not surprising given the flood of global liquidity and the flow of funds into EM debt markets. In addition, real yields in developed market such as the US, the UK and Germany are also lower versus long-term averages. We provide a further analysis on individual Asian markets below.

Dependence on foreign funding

The more dependent a market is on foreign funding, the more vulnerable the market will be to an abrupt foreign exodus caused by an inflation shock. Asian local-currency bond markets have seen strong inflows in 2010. The two countries that have seen the strongest inflows are Indonesia, where foreign holdings as a percentage of the total outstanding rose from 14.6% to 30.3%; and Malaysia, where the share rose from 12.4% to 26.8%. In both cases, foreigners accounted more than 100% of the increase in debt stock year-to-date.

Indonesia is Asia's most vulnerable bond market to an inflation shock.

The real yield in Indonesia of 1.3% is lower than its long-term average of 3.2%; coupled with the fact that the bond market is very dependent on foreign funding, this makes Indonesia the most vulnerable bond market to inflation, in our view.

An inflation shock should result in locals demanding higher nominal yields to compensate for higher inflation. If there is an exodus of foreigners from the market, prompted by higher yields, there is no natural large domestic buyer, as banks (which have historically been the largest holders of Indonesian bonds) have been buying fewer government bonds at the margin amid robust credit growth over the past three years.

Korea and Malaysia are also vulnerable to an inflation shock, but to a lesser extent than Indonesia

Real yields in Korea are very low, at around 0.5% versus the long-term average of 2.2%. Foreign holdings as a percentage of the total outstanding have also been creeping higher this year, to around 15% from 11%.

These two factors put Korea at risk, although to a lesser degree than Indonesia. In Malaysia, foreign participation is very high, which makes the market vulnerable. However, current real yields of around 2% are higher than the long-term average of 1.3%, which will provide some buffer in the event of an inflation shock.

Despite inflation risks in the Philippines and Thailand, dependence on foreign funding is low

The Philippines does not provide data on foreign holdings, but we estimate that they are fairly low at around 6-7% of total holdings, based on custody holdings data.

In addition, onshore liquidity is extremely flush, with banks placing over PHP 1trn daily with the central bank in deposit and repo facilities. So even if foreigners leave the market after an inflation shock, there should still be plenty of demand from local banks, which are the largest players in the market, with around 45% of total holdings.

In Thailand, real yields are very low, which presents a risk. However, foreign participation in the bond market is also considered low, with foreigners owning just 7.5% of total LBs (government bonds) outstanding.

In addition, Thai bond yields have already adjusted significantly higher after withholding taxes were introduced on 13 October. As in the Philippines, even if foreigners flee the market, we believe that sizeable local demand would help to absorb foreign selling.