KUALA LUMPUR: Banks around the Asia-Pacific region appear well placed to withstand any moderation in house prices, reflecting prudent lending practices, tight regulations, and high household savings rates, says Standard & Poor's Ratings Services
In its report published on Monday, May 23 entitled "Could a house price correction threaten Asia-Pacific banks?" it said while house prices have escalated in many markets around the region in recent years, and there is scope for a correction in some "hot" areas.
However, S&P does not currently anticipate a deep, disruptive price correction for the region's residential property that could lead to systemic risk forAsia-Pacific's banks.
"We expect that the region's stable economic outlook and rising household income--factors that have influenced average house prices to date--can sustain the market," S&P credit analyst Naoko Nemoto said.
"We believe that in the event of a downturn, most rated banks around the region have the capacity to absorb potential credit losses with limited impact on overall credit quality."
Other factors supporting S&P's view include the region's generally conservative underwriting standards and low unemployment rates.
S&P also notes that prime residential mortgage loans form a large part of Asia-Pacific banks' mortgage portfolios and most legal systems in the Asia-Pacific region allow for full-recourse loans, which should protect the region's banks to some extent.
The ratings agency does not anticipate a material deterioration in the credit quality of the region's home loans expects under a stress scenario resulting in a 20%-30% price correction in house prices coupled with a 100 basis point interest rate hike for each system, or any subsequent substantial impact on ratings on Asia-Pacific banks.
While not anticipated, S&P acknowledges that a more severe downturn could pose a greater threat to the region's banks.
"As events in the U.S. and other markets have demonstrated, if there is a sharp drop in average house prices around the region, multiple sectors of the economy could suffer, potentially leading to a surge in credit losses across various asset classes," Nemoto said.
In its report published on Monday, May 23 entitled "Could a house price correction threaten Asia-Pacific banks?" it said while house prices have escalated in many markets around the region in recent years, and there is scope for a correction in some "hot" areas.
However, S&P does not currently anticipate a deep, disruptive price correction for the region's residential property that could lead to systemic risk forAsia-Pacific's banks.
"We expect that the region's stable economic outlook and rising household income--factors that have influenced average house prices to date--can sustain the market," S&P credit analyst Naoko Nemoto said.
"We believe that in the event of a downturn, most rated banks around the region have the capacity to absorb potential credit losses with limited impact on overall credit quality."
Other factors supporting S&P's view include the region's generally conservative underwriting standards and low unemployment rates.
S&P also notes that prime residential mortgage loans form a large part of Asia-Pacific banks' mortgage portfolios and most legal systems in the Asia-Pacific region allow for full-recourse loans, which should protect the region's banks to some extent.
The ratings agency does not anticipate a material deterioration in the credit quality of the region's home loans expects under a stress scenario resulting in a 20%-30% price correction in house prices coupled with a 100 basis point interest rate hike for each system, or any subsequent substantial impact on ratings on Asia-Pacific banks.
While not anticipated, S&P acknowledges that a more severe downturn could pose a greater threat to the region's banks.
"As events in the U.S. and other markets have demonstrated, if there is a sharp drop in average house prices around the region, multiple sectors of the economy could suffer, potentially leading to a surge in credit losses across various asset classes," Nemoto said.
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