Monday, September 20, 2010

Dollar, commodities steady, markets await Fed

SINGAPORE: The dollar was on the defensive and gold held near a record high on Monday, Sept 20 as possible further Federal Reserve moves to increase money supply weighed on the U.S. currency and boosted alternative assets.

Uncertainty about the global economic recovery, fuelled by weak U.S. consumer sentiment data on Friday, and a public holiday in Japan also kept many investors sidelined, with oil steady after a drop last week and Asian equities treading water.

Japan intervened to sell yen for the first time in six years last week, partially interrupting a decline in the dollar that began when talk of further quantitative easing -- effectively printing money -- by the U.S. central bank revived last month.

"If the Fed decides to give more hints it is about to embark on more QE, the U.S. dollar slide will probably continue," said John Kyriakopoulos, a currency analyst at National Australia Bank in Sydney.

The Fed is not expected to make any new monetary policy moves on Tuesday, but the post-meeting statement will be closely parsed for signals on the debate about whether further large-scale asset purchases are needed to support the sluggish recovery.

Views differ among Fed officials about whether stubbornly high unemployment merits more aggressive policy intervention.

Recent data appear to indicate the U.S. economy is not sliding back into recession as some market watchers had feared, but investors are wrestling with how to value stocks as the global recovery loses momentum and sales outlooks grow more unclear.

MSCI's broadest index of Asian shares outside Japan was flat , with equity markets gaining modestly in Singapore and Taiwan but losing ground in Hong Kong, South Korea and Australia

BETS AGAINST DOLLAR

Market sentiment on the major currencies was summed up by the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. They showed investors had increased bets against the U.S. dollar to the highest level in a month, while sharply cutting back net short positions in the euro and sterling.

On Monday, the dollar was parked at 85.70 yen having spent Friday in a tight 85.57 to 85.92 range as the risk of further intervention by TOkyo kept investors away.

Gold which tends to benefit from economic uncertainty as it is viewed by many investors as a safe-haven asset, traded around $1,279 an ounce, not far from the all-time peak of $1,282.75 struck on Friday.

U.S. crude oil futures which slipped nearly 4 percent last week, gained 34 cents to $74 a barrel, with many traders waiting for the Fed's readout on the U.S. economy.

"If they lower their forecasts as some people are expecting, oil prices would be pushed down because it implies lower demand," said Michelle Kwek, an analyst at Informa Global Markets in Singapore. - Reuters


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