HONG KONG:'' The U.S. dollar fell against emerging Asian currencies on Monday, Aug 9 on growing expectations the Federal Reserve will have to buy more bonds to support the flagging economy, helping to also lift commodity prices and equities.
The yen hovered within striking distance of a 15-year high against the struggling dollar, weighing heavily on shares in export-dependent Japan and keeping dealers alert for possible government intervention to weaken the currency.
Strength in other Asian currencies, though, has also coincided with equity outperformance. The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index rose to a fresh three-month high, a tell-tale sign that investors are focused on the region's relatively solid long-term growth prospects and healthier financial systems.
Chinese economic data this week are expected to confirm growth has plateaued for now, though exports and imports will still probably rise at a double-digit annual pace.
The main event of the week will be the Federal Reserve's decision on monetary policy on Tuesday.
Speculation has grown that a steady drumbeat of downbeat economic data, including disappointingly large job losses in July, will force the Fed to take bolder action to stimulate growth.
"After the poor jobs data, the focus is now on whether the Fed will further ease its monetary policy. The yen has already risen to around 85 yen (per dollar) on expectations that the Fed might do so," said Mitsuo Shimizu, deputy general manager at Cosmo Securities in Tokyo.
The U.S. dollar was at 85.38 yen nearly unchanged on the day though not far from an eight-month low around 85 yen reached on Friday in the wake of the weak U.S. employment report. A dollar decline below 84.81 yen would mark the strongest level for the yen in 15 years.
Against the South Korean won, the dollar fell 0.3 percent to 1,157.50 won, a near three-month low. A lack of any chart-based obstacles for the won could push it closer to 1,000 per dollar.
Persistent dollar weakness is all the more striking given how quickly short-term investors have amassed a collective bet against the currency. Speculators on the International Monetary Market in Chicago in the week ended Aug. 3 had a net short dollar position of $15.5 billion, the largest since December 2009.
Usually such a big position is vulnerable to reversals.
Japan's Nikkei share average fell 1 percent as investors focused on the negative impact of a stronger yen on exporters. Electronics components maker Kyocera Corp stock fell 1.9 percent and was the biggest drag on the index.
Outside of Japan, Asian stocks fared better. The MSCI index of Asia Pacific ex-Japan equities was up 0.3 percent to the highest since May 4.
Since June, the index has risen 12 percent, exceeding an 8 percent gain on the all-country world index and a 5 percent rise in the U.S. S&P 500 index
ASIAN INFLOWS
As an example of investors' clear preference for developing Asian markets, India's stock market -- whose market capitalisation is a third of Japan's -- has absorbed $11 billion in net foreign investment so far this year, compared with $10.3 billion in Japan, Standard Chartered data showed.
Government bond prices ticked higher after a rally in U.S. Treasuries on Friday as speculation that the Fed will buy debt to pull down market rates knocked the 10-year yield to a 15-month low.
Ten-year Japanese government bond futures were up 0.3 points getting closer to a 7-year high hit last week. In the cash market, the 10-year yield fell 3.0 basis points to 1.025 percent moving closer to a seven-year trough of 0.995 percent touched last week.
"Depending on what the Fed does at the meeting the 10-year yield could try for 0.95 percent. The 1 percent threshold is seen as less of a barrier now that it has been breached once," said Katsutoshi Inadome, a fixed-income strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities in Tokyo.
U.S. Treasury futures were flat on the day
Commodities prices got a boost from the weaker dollar. U.S. crude for September delivery rose 0.4 percent to $81.01 a barrel having risen 11.6 percent since June.
However, U.S. wheat prices fell 4.5 percent adding to a 7 percent decline on Friday. Chicago wheat futures surged to a two-year high after Russia banned exports of the grain last Thursday, though prices come tumbling back on profit taking. - Reuters
The yen hovered within striking distance of a 15-year high against the struggling dollar, weighing heavily on shares in export-dependent Japan and keeping dealers alert for possible government intervention to weaken the currency.
Strength in other Asian currencies, though, has also coincided with equity outperformance. The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index rose to a fresh three-month high, a tell-tale sign that investors are focused on the region's relatively solid long-term growth prospects and healthier financial systems.
Chinese economic data this week are expected to confirm growth has plateaued for now, though exports and imports will still probably rise at a double-digit annual pace.
The main event of the week will be the Federal Reserve's decision on monetary policy on Tuesday.
Speculation has grown that a steady drumbeat of downbeat economic data, including disappointingly large job losses in July, will force the Fed to take bolder action to stimulate growth.
"After the poor jobs data, the focus is now on whether the Fed will further ease its monetary policy. The yen has already risen to around 85 yen (per dollar) on expectations that the Fed might do so," said Mitsuo Shimizu, deputy general manager at Cosmo Securities in Tokyo.
The U.S. dollar was at 85.38 yen nearly unchanged on the day though not far from an eight-month low around 85 yen reached on Friday in the wake of the weak U.S. employment report. A dollar decline below 84.81 yen would mark the strongest level for the yen in 15 years.
Against the South Korean won, the dollar fell 0.3 percent to 1,157.50 won, a near three-month low. A lack of any chart-based obstacles for the won could push it closer to 1,000 per dollar.
Persistent dollar weakness is all the more striking given how quickly short-term investors have amassed a collective bet against the currency. Speculators on the International Monetary Market in Chicago in the week ended Aug. 3 had a net short dollar position of $15.5 billion, the largest since December 2009.
Usually such a big position is vulnerable to reversals.
Japan's Nikkei share average fell 1 percent as investors focused on the negative impact of a stronger yen on exporters. Electronics components maker Kyocera Corp stock fell 1.9 percent and was the biggest drag on the index.
Outside of Japan, Asian stocks fared better. The MSCI index of Asia Pacific ex-Japan equities was up 0.3 percent to the highest since May 4.
Since June, the index has risen 12 percent, exceeding an 8 percent gain on the all-country world index and a 5 percent rise in the U.S. S&P 500 index
ASIAN INFLOWS
As an example of investors' clear preference for developing Asian markets, India's stock market -- whose market capitalisation is a third of Japan's -- has absorbed $11 billion in net foreign investment so far this year, compared with $10.3 billion in Japan, Standard Chartered data showed.
Government bond prices ticked higher after a rally in U.S. Treasuries on Friday as speculation that the Fed will buy debt to pull down market rates knocked the 10-year yield to a 15-month low.
Ten-year Japanese government bond futures were up 0.3 points getting closer to a 7-year high hit last week. In the cash market, the 10-year yield fell 3.0 basis points to 1.025 percent moving closer to a seven-year trough of 0.995 percent touched last week.
"Depending on what the Fed does at the meeting the 10-year yield could try for 0.95 percent. The 1 percent threshold is seen as less of a barrier now that it has been breached once," said Katsutoshi Inadome, a fixed-income strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities in Tokyo.
U.S. Treasury futures were flat on the day
Commodities prices got a boost from the weaker dollar. U.S. crude for September delivery rose 0.4 percent to $81.01 a barrel having risen 11.6 percent since June.
However, U.S. wheat prices fell 4.5 percent adding to a 7 percent decline on Friday. Chicago wheat futures surged to a two-year high after Russia banned exports of the grain last Thursday, though prices come tumbling back on profit taking. - Reuters
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