SINGAPORE: The Malaysian ringgit breached a technical support line on Monday, June 13 leading declines in Asian emerging currencies, as investors continued to reduce exposure to riskier assets on'' worries about Greece's debt crisis and slackening global economic growth.
The euro rebounded, helping some other regional currencies from falling through technical support levels, but the strength was seen as temporary as major European countries remain at odds over how to structure a fresh rescue package for Greece.
Those concerns, along with growing signs that the global recovery is losing steam, are expected to put more pressure on emerging Asian currencies in the short term, dealers and analysts said.
"Reassessment of emerging market growth prospects is likely to continue with a slew of data expected to suggest softer economic activity, weighing on currencies especially if the USD is getting more relief, which seems to be the case," said Frances Cheung, a strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong.
"Likely policy rate hikes by China and India in view of inflation risk could add further to worries about a slowdown in growth, plus signs of weaker U.S. growth and lingering euro debt problems, all are negatives for Asian assets near term," Cheung said, adding that regional currencies may weaken past their recent ranges.
Emerging Asian currencies were supported earlier in the year by strong economic growth and policymakers' inflation fighting efforts, but began to surrender those gains in May on fears of a Greek debt default and after a string of weak economic data from major developed economies, in particular the United States.
Still, they are seeing some support as many central banks in the region continue to tighten policy to curb stubbornly strong inflation.
On Friday, South Korean central bank surprised markets by raising interest rates as the government warned of rising inflation risks even as growth in Asia's fourth-largest economy cools.
"USD/Asia is still in a broad range trade and market will still be looking to fade bounces," said Jonathan Cavenagh, a currency strategist at Westpac in Singapore.
"The key for me is what the VIX does, it's still below 20, so that tells me market isn't that concerned about the current weakness in U.S. equities. That could of course change and if does we may see more of a squeeze higher in USD/Asia."
The CBOE Volatility Index , Wall Street's so-called fear gauge, on Friday rose 6.1 percent to end at 18.86.
''
RINGGIT
The ringgit'' weakened past 3.0382 per dollar, the 61.8 percent retracement level of its strengthening trend between late May and early June as interbank speculators covered dollar-short positions.
Leveraged names and corporate also sold the Malaysian currency.
The ringgit has room to further if investors continue to reduce exposure to risky assets, probably to 3.0558, the 50 percent retracement line of its strengthening trend between December last year and April.
"We had mega risk aversion on Thursday and Friday. This week, we need to see how big the shake-out in major markets would be," said a Kuala Lumpur-based dealer.
''
WON
The won'' shed 0.3 percent against the dollar on outflows linked to foreign investors' stock sales and as importers bought the greenback.
Still, the South Korean currency did not weaken past 1,086.8 per dollar, the 55-day moving average, helped by exporters' demand for settlements.
"Demand and supply from corporate sectors will reduce sensitivity in USD/KRW to mood from external factors," said an Asian bank dealer in Singapore, adding the pair is seen staying in a range.
Another dealer at a local bank in Seoul said the foreign exchange authorities would not just wait and see if the won moves sharply in either direction to protect export competitiveness and stem inflationary pressure at the same time.
Foreign investors remained net sellers of Seoul shares'' for a third consecutive session, although the benchmark KOSPI closed slightly higher.
''
PHILIPPINE PESO
The Philippine peso'' recovered nearly half of its earlier losses as local interbank speculators cleared dollar-long positions to take profits.
The peso succeeded to stay firmer than 43.400 per dollar, the 61.8 pct Fibonacci retracement level of its strengthening trend between late May and early June.
"Market is looking at technical retracement at 43.400 and I see some profit taking at the moment," said a European bank dealer in Manila.
The Philippine currency may try to break through the support but it is seen unlikely in the session, the dealer said, adding investors holds some long dollar positions. - Reuters
''
The euro rebounded, helping some other regional currencies from falling through technical support levels, but the strength was seen as temporary as major European countries remain at odds over how to structure a fresh rescue package for Greece.
Those concerns, along with growing signs that the global recovery is losing steam, are expected to put more pressure on emerging Asian currencies in the short term, dealers and analysts said.
"Reassessment of emerging market growth prospects is likely to continue with a slew of data expected to suggest softer economic activity, weighing on currencies especially if the USD is getting more relief, which seems to be the case," said Frances Cheung, a strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong.
"Likely policy rate hikes by China and India in view of inflation risk could add further to worries about a slowdown in growth, plus signs of weaker U.S. growth and lingering euro debt problems, all are negatives for Asian assets near term," Cheung said, adding that regional currencies may weaken past their recent ranges.
Emerging Asian currencies were supported earlier in the year by strong economic growth and policymakers' inflation fighting efforts, but began to surrender those gains in May on fears of a Greek debt default and after a string of weak economic data from major developed economies, in particular the United States.
Still, they are seeing some support as many central banks in the region continue to tighten policy to curb stubbornly strong inflation.
On Friday, South Korean central bank surprised markets by raising interest rates as the government warned of rising inflation risks even as growth in Asia's fourth-largest economy cools.
"USD/Asia is still in a broad range trade and market will still be looking to fade bounces," said Jonathan Cavenagh, a currency strategist at Westpac in Singapore.
"The key for me is what the VIX does, it's still below 20, so that tells me market isn't that concerned about the current weakness in U.S. equities. That could of course change and if does we may see more of a squeeze higher in USD/Asia."
The CBOE Volatility Index , Wall Street's so-called fear gauge, on Friday rose 6.1 percent to end at 18.86.
''
RINGGIT
The ringgit'' weakened past 3.0382 per dollar, the 61.8 percent retracement level of its strengthening trend between late May and early June as interbank speculators covered dollar-short positions.
Leveraged names and corporate also sold the Malaysian currency.
The ringgit has room to further if investors continue to reduce exposure to risky assets, probably to 3.0558, the 50 percent retracement line of its strengthening trend between December last year and April.
"We had mega risk aversion on Thursday and Friday. This week, we need to see how big the shake-out in major markets would be," said a Kuala Lumpur-based dealer.
''
WON
The won'' shed 0.3 percent against the dollar on outflows linked to foreign investors' stock sales and as importers bought the greenback.
Still, the South Korean currency did not weaken past 1,086.8 per dollar, the 55-day moving average, helped by exporters' demand for settlements.
"Demand and supply from corporate sectors will reduce sensitivity in USD/KRW to mood from external factors," said an Asian bank dealer in Singapore, adding the pair is seen staying in a range.
Another dealer at a local bank in Seoul said the foreign exchange authorities would not just wait and see if the won moves sharply in either direction to protect export competitiveness and stem inflationary pressure at the same time.
Foreign investors remained net sellers of Seoul shares'' for a third consecutive session, although the benchmark KOSPI closed slightly higher.
''
PHILIPPINE PESO
The Philippine peso'' recovered nearly half of its earlier losses as local interbank speculators cleared dollar-long positions to take profits.
The peso succeeded to stay firmer than 43.400 per dollar, the 61.8 pct Fibonacci retracement level of its strengthening trend between late May and early June.
"Market is looking at technical retracement at 43.400 and I see some profit taking at the moment," said a European bank dealer in Manila.
The Philippine currency may try to break through the support but it is seen unlikely in the session, the dealer said, adding investors holds some long dollar positions. - Reuters
''
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