Thursday, June 10, 2010

Panel: NY Fed failed to exhaust AIG rescue options

WASHINGTON: The New York Federal Reserve under Timothy Geithner failed to exhaust all options to arrange a private-sector rescue of American International Group before launching a taxpayer-funded bailout in 2008, a government watchdog group said on Thursday, June 10.

A report by the Congressional Oversight Panel said Geithner, now US Treasury Secretary, on Sept 15, 2008 left the task of finding a private bailout for AIG to two Wall Street banks, JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs Group.

Within hours, the firms had concluded no private sector deal was possible.

"The Panel is concerned that the government put the effort to organize a private AIG rescue in the hands of only two banks ' banks with severe conflicts of interest as they would have been among the largest beneficiaries of a taxpayer bailout," the report said. "By failing to bring in other players, the government neglected to use all of its negotiating leverage."

The report is the latest salvo in a barrage of criticism of the Fed's and Treasury's handling of the AIG bailout from government auditors and US lawmakers in recent months.

The rescue, prompted by billions of dollars in cash calls from credit default swaps that AIG sold during the housing boom, was the costliest of the financial crisis at about US$182 billion.

The Fed and Treasury have argued that days after the failure of Lehman Brothers, they had little choice but to rescue AIG with taxpayer funds. Markets were in a panic and an uncontrolled AIG bankruptcy would have gutted the global financial system.

The panel's report said that New York Fed officials allowed precious days to go by in September 2008 when they knew AIG had severe liquidity problems. Robert Willumstad, then-AIG CEO, spoke to Geithner in July about accessing the Fed's discount loan window, which was available to primary dealers, but not insurers.

Willumstad asked Geithner again on Sept 9 about how to become a primary dealer for Fed lending access. And AIG informed the Fed it was having severe liquidity problems on Sept 12, at a time when Geithner and then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson were focused on trying to rescue Lehman.

"The government could have acted earlier and much more aggressively to secure either a fully private rescue of AIG or a rescue that combined public and private funds," the panel's chairman, Harvard Law School professor Elizabeth Warren, told reporters on a conference call.

"This would have been difficult, perhaps even impossible, but the government should have exhausted every option before spending a penny of taxpayer funds."

Deepening hole
Fed officials contend that AIG, which they did not regulate, did not fully inform them of the depth of the company's hole until the morning of Sept 15, the day before Geithner approved an $85 billion Fed loan for AIG, the first of several such installments.

Treasury spokesman Andrew Williams, who also worked at the New York Fed in September 2008, said it was easy for the panel to speculate about different outcomes for the AIG rescue.

"But the laundry list of ideas, however creative, overlooks the basic fact that the global economy was on the brink of collapse and there were only hours in which to make critical decisions," he said.

"The choices and tools available to the government were extremely limited, and outcomes were deeply uncertain."

A Fed spokesperson said the bank disagreed with the report's conclusion that there were "...better alternatives that were workable in the extreme circumstances of the time", and it believes its actions were necessary to protect Americans from the "catastrophic consequences" of an AIG failure.

The report also concluded that the AIG rescue, and the subsequent payment-in-full to Wall Street and international banks to cancel credit default swaps they had bought from AIG, had vastly increased moral hazard in the financial system.

It said this had fundamentally distorted derivatives markets by implying that such risky swaps bets would be transformed into "fully guaranteed transactions, with the American taxpayer standing as guarantor".

Saving more foreign banks
The oversight panel also concluded that in addition directly paying billions to banks such as Goldman and Societe Generale, US taxpayers also had indirectly saved other foreign banks from financial difficulties by keeping AIG alive.

The AIG rescue preserved some $249.9 billion in non-cancelled regulatory capital swaps with foreign banks that were active as of Oct. 1, 2008, the panel said, citing non-public AIG documents.

The largest of the counterparties for these transactions was ABN AMRO, with $56 billion in such swaps. Had AIG failed, the loss of credit protection for the nationalized Dutch bank would have left it needing to raise $3.6 billion in additional regulatory capital, the report said.

Among other banks holding such AIG swaps were Denmark's Danske Bank at $32.2 billion; Germany's KfW, withe $30.0 billion; and France's Credit Logement at $29.3 billion; Calyon; BNP Paribas at $23.3 billion and Societe Generale at $15.6 billion. ' Reuters


Banking stocks up in early trade

KUALA LUMPUR: Banking stocks rose ahead of the announcement of the 10th Malaysia Plan on Thursday, June 10 on expectations the government may take steps to liberalise the financial services sector under the plan, which stretches from 2011 to 2015.

At 10.23am, RHB Capital added five sen to RM5.75, Maybank up four sen to RM7.42, CIMB gained two sen to RM6.90 while Affin was up one sen to RM2.99.


Talam active after coming off PN17 list

KUALA LUMPUR: Talam Corp Bhd, which came off the Practice Note 17 (PN17) list effective Thursday, June 10, was the most actively traded stock on Bursa Malaysia in early trade.

At 10.05am, the counter added half a sen to 14.5 sen with 174.9 million shares done.

Talam had regularised its financial condition and that it "no longer triggers any of the criteria under Paragraph 2.1 of the PN17 of the Main Market Listing Requirements".

PN17 is a classification for companies that are in financial distress. Companies in this list would have to comply with the obligations to regularise its financial conditions; otherwise delisting procedures shall be taken against it.

Talam had been admitted into the PN17 list since Sept 1, 2006. Its auditors were unable to "express their opinion on the company's audited accounts" for its financial year ended Jan 31, 2006.


China confirms faster exports, trade surplus leaps

BEIJING: China's exports rose 48.5% in May from a year earlier and imports were up 48.3%, the General Administration of Customs said on Thursday, June 10.

According to Reuters calculations, that left China with a trade surplus of about US$19.5 billion, compared with a surplus of $1.7 billion in April.

The median forecast of 32 economists polled by Reuters was for exports to rise 32% and imports to climb 45%, with a projected trade surplus of $8.8 billion.

However, on Wednesday a government official disclosed that export growth was about 50% year-on-year.

Unadjusted figures showed exports rose 9.9% from April but imports fell 5.1%.

After calendar adjustments for the number of working days, exports rose 45.3% in May from a year earlier and were up 10.9% from April, Customs said.

On the same basis, imports last month rose 41.7% from May 2010 but fell 0.9% from April, it added. ' Reuters


HSL up after landing PWD job in Sarawak

KUALA LUMPUR: HOCK SENG LEE BHD [] added eight sen to RM1.51 with 302,600 shares done at 10.10am Thusrday, June 10 after news on a road project in Sarawak came through.

The company and its partner Matrik Bestari Sdn Bhd had received a letter of acceptance from the Public Works Department of Sarawak to build an access road linking Samarahan to Tanjong Bako. The contract sum is RM72.5 million.

"The consortium will carry out the works of the project as an unincorporated joint venture with HSL having 90% share in the project. The payment for the project shall be made partly in kind and partly in cash in the ratio of 50:50. The payment in kind shall be in the form of land," it said in an announcement Wednesday.


#Stocks to watch:* Banks, Talam, BCorp, Hock Seng Lee

KUALA LUMPUR: Market sentiment should perk up on Thursday, June 10 with the announcement of the 10th Malaysia Plan by the Prime Minister, putting the economy on a stronger recovery path.

Stocks which could attract interest are financial institutions as the government may take steps to liberalise the financial services sector under the 10th Plan, which stretches from 2011 to 2015.

There are plans to expand the services sector and increase its contribution to the GDP while steps are also taken to increase the productivity and attract new investments.

More details will be announced when Datuk Seri Najib Razak delivers the policy speech in Parliament at 11.30am.

Other stocks to watch are Talam Corp Bhd, Berjaya Corp Bhd and HOCK SENG LEE BHD [].

Talam will no longer be on the Practice Note 17 (PN17) list effective on Thursday. It had regularised its financial condition and that it "no longer triggers any of the criteria under Paragraph 2.1 of the PN17 of the Main Market Listing Requirements".

PN17 is a classification for companies that are in financial distress. Companies in this list would have to comply with the obligations to regularise its financial conditions; otherwise delisting procedures shall be taken against it.

Talam had been admitted into the PN17 list since Sept 1, 2006. Its auditors were unable to "express their opinion on the company's audited accounts" for its financial year ended Jan 31, 2006.

Meanwhile, Najib has reiterated that the government had yet to issue the licence to Ascot Sports to operate sports betting in the country.

"The government has not finalised discussions on the licensing terms and conditions with Ascot Sports to conduct bookie operations in Malaysia," he told the Dewan Rakyat.

Ascot Sports is the private vehicle of BCorp chairman and CEO Tan Sri Vincent Tan.

Hock Seng Lee Bhd and its partner Matrik Bestari Sdn Bhd received a letter of acceptance from the Public Works Department, Sarawak to build an access road linking Samarahan to Tanjong Bako. The contract sum is RM72.5 million.

'The consortium will carry out the works of the project as an unincorporated joint venture with HSL having 90% share in the project. The payment for the project shall be made partly in kind and partly in cash in the ratio of 50:50. The payment in kind shall be in the form of land,' it said.

Meanwhile, PREMIUM NUTRIENTS BHD [], which produces edible oils and fats, and animal feed, is targeting RM200 million worth of contracts over the next six months.

Its CEO and group managing director T T Rajah said the contracts would be procured from its existing customers as well as new ones from the Middle East and the Commonwealth of Independent States, comprising former Soviet republics.

In WIDETECH (M) BHD [], a filing with Bursa Malaysia showed Lim Hian Yu Sdn Bhd had increased its stake to 5.53 million shares or 12.35% after acquiring 2.5 million shares on May 11.

The Bank of East Asia, Ltd, meanwhile, was seen stepping up its acquisition of AFFIN HOLDINGS BHD []. The Hong Kong-based bank bought 1.6 million shares on June 4 and 7 and raised its stake to 341.2 million shares.


Global GDP to expand between 2.9%-3.3% in 2010, 2011

KUALA LUMPUR: The World Bank projects global GDP to expand between 2.9% and 3.3% in 2010 and 2011, strengthening to between 3.2% and 3.5% in 2012, reversing the 2.1% decline in 2009.

In a statement on Wednesday, June 9 on its website, the World Bank in its latest Global Economic Prospects 2010 said the economic recovery continues to advance, but Europe's debt crisis has created new hurdles on the road to sustainable medium term growth.

Developing economies are expected to grow between 5.7% and 6.2% each year from 2010-2012.

High-income countries, however, are projected to grow by between 2.1% and 2.3% in 2010 ' not enough to undo the 3.3% contraction in 2009-followed by between 1.9% and 2.4% growth in 2011.

The World Bank's chief economist and senior vice president, development economics Justin Yifu Lin said the better performance of developing countries in today's world of multipolar growth was reassuring.

"But, for the rebound to endure, high-income countries need to seize opportunities offered by stronger growth in developing countries," he said.

The recovery faces several important headwinds over the medium term, including reduced international capital flows, high unemployment, and spare capacity exceeding 10% in many countries.

According to the report, while the impact of the European debt crisis has so far been contained, prolonged rising sovereign debt could make credit more expensive and curtail investment and growth in developing countries.

On the upside, world merchandise trade has rebounded sharply and is expected to increase by about 21% this year, before growth rates taper down to around 8% in 2011-2012.

Almost half of the rise in global demand in 2010-2012 will come from developing countries. ''

The World Bank's projections assume that efforts by the IMF and European institutions will stave off a default or major European sovereign debt restructuring. But even so, developing countries and regions with close trade and financial connections to highly-indebted high-income countries may feel serious ripple effects.

"Demand stimulus in high-income countries is increasingly part of the problem instead of the solution," said Hans Timmer, director of the Prospects Group at the World Bank was quoted as saying in the statement. ''

"A more rapid reining in of spending could reduce borrowing costs and boost growth in both high-income and developing countries in the longer run."

Regardless of how the debt situation in high-income Europe evolves, a second round financial crisis cannot be ruled out in certain countries of developing Europe and Central Asia, where rising non-performing loans, due to slow recovery and significant levels of short-term debt, may threaten banking-sector solvency.

"Developing countries are not immune to the effects of a high-income sovereign debt crisis," said Andrew Burns, manager of global macroeconomics at the World Bank.

"But we expect many economies to continue to do well if they focus on growth strategies, make it easier to do business, or make spending more efficient. Their goal will be to ensure that investors continue to distinguish between their risks and those of these high-income countries."

The World Bank said many developing countries would continue to face serious financing gaps.

Private capital flows to developing countries are forecast to recover only modestly from US$454 billion (2.7% of the developing world's GDP) in 2009 to $771 billion (3.2% of GDP) by 2012, still far below the $1.2 trillion (8.5% of GDP) in 2007. Overall, the financing gap of developing countries is projected to be $210 billion in 2010, declining to $180 billion in 2011-down from an estimated $352 billion in 2009.

Over the next 20 years, the fight against poverty could be hampered if countries are forced to cut productive and human capital investments because of lower development aid and reduced tax revenues, the report says.

If bilateral aid flows decline, as they have in the past, this could affect long-term growth rates in developing countries ' potentially increasing the number of extremely poor in 2020 by as much as 26 million.


Wall St slides as BP plunge hurts sentiment

NEW YORK: US stocks fell on Wednesday, June 9 in another late-day roller-coaster ride, dragged lower by BP and other energy shares as the US probe of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico deepened.

New York-traded shares of BP plc fell 15.8% to below US$30 on growing worries about the costs the energy giant will have to assume because of the spill.

"You hear this unease over solvency and/or a dividend suspension at BP, and I think it's hurting the tone of the market," said Nick Kalivas, senior equity index analyst at MF Global in Chicago.

BP officials have said they have enough cash to handle the crisis, but the cost of protecting BP's debt against default hit record highs, suggesting increased worry about the British oil giant's ability to handle its obligations.

With Wednesday's decline, BP has given up more than half its market value since the explosion that triggered the spill in late April. On April 20, the day of the offshore oil rig explosion, BP's New York-traded shares closed at $60.48. On Wednesday, the shares ended at $29.20.

Wall Street traded higher for most of the session before negative sentiment stemming from the slide in BP shares overtook investor optimism.

Banking shares also fell late, in sympathy with energy shares. MF Global's Kalivas cited concerns that some banks with exposure to the region may be at risk of losses. The KBW bank index lost 0.8%, with Birmingham, Alabama-based Regions Financial down 4.4% at $6.79.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 40.73 points, or 0.41%, to 9,899.25. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 6.31 points, or 0.59%, to 1,055.69. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 11.72 points, or 0.54%, to 2,158.85.

Sentiment was positive earlier in the session after sources told Reuters that China's May exports data came in above expectations, reassuring investors concerned that Europe's debt problems could dampen demand for foreign goods and slow the global recovery.

Advancing stocks barely outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a ratio of about 16 to 15, while on the Nasdaq, about 7 stocks fell for every 6 that rose.

The S&P found technical resistance at its session high around the 1,078 level, which roughly coincides with its 14-day simple moving average.

The index's moving average convergence divergence, or MACD, a widely followed momentum indicator, fell slightly short of generating a 'buy' signal and also provided resistance.

About 10.53 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, above last year's estimated daily average of 9.65 billion.

On the upside, airline shares rose after UBS raised its price target on various top names, including AMR Corp'sAmerican Airlines, Delta Air Lines Inc and Continental Airlines Inc.

An index of airline shares rose 0.3% after having gained more than 2% earlier.

In deal news, Allscripts-Misys Healthcare Solutions Inc agreed to buy Eclipsys Corp in a $1.3 billion deal. Eclipsys shares rose 2.8% to $19.02, while Allscripts tumbled 9.7% to $16.64. ' Reuters


Japan revised Q1 GDP beats forecast, outlook murky

TOKYO: Japan's economy grew a revised 1.2% in January-March from the previous quarter, surprising market players expecting a downward revision from the initial reading and boding well for the new government tasked with reining in the country's huge public debt.

But analysts say growth is likely to slow later this year as gains in consumption could moderate due to a lacklustre jobs market, while the impact of government stimulus spending is also seen wearing off. Europe's debt crisis also casts doubt on the outlook for Japan's exports to that region.

"The strong economic growth in the first quarter can be explained almost entirely by the effect of government stimulus measures and strong exports," said Junko Nishioka, chief economist at RBS Securities Japan.

"We expect economic growth to slow later this fiscal year as the stimulus effect tapers off."

Prime Minister Naoto Kan, who was sworn in on Tuesday, June 8, has said his cabinet will strengthen the economy, improve the welfare system and rein in public debts that are about twice the size of the economy.

The government is likely to announce this month a growth strategy to boost investment in new areas of growth such as healthcare. But Kan's cabinet could struggle to balance the need for fiscal spending with its pledge to fix the country's tattered finances.

Gross domestic product grew a revised 1.2% in the first quarter, matching the preliminary reading and more than the median forecast of a 1% expansion.

The revised figure translates into annualised growth of 5%, slightly more than the initial reading of 4.9%. The median forecast was for 4.2% annualised growth.

Capital expenditure rose 0.6% in the first quarter, revised down from a preliminary 1% increase but bigger than the market forecast of a revised 0.2% gain.

Wholesale prices rose 0.4% in the year to May, marking the first annual rise in 17 months, but the rise was due mostly to higher energy costs, Bank of Japan data showed on Thursday.

Japan pulled out of recession in April-June last year, helped by firm exports to Asia and firmness in consumption due to the government's stimulus measures, which included subsidies on energy-efficient cars and consumer electronics.

The subsidies are scheduled to expire by the end of this year and economists say the weak labour market means that gains in consumption are likely to slow.

Japanese companies have ramped up factory output due to overseas demand, but have been reluctant to invest in new plant and equipment on doubts about the strength of domestic demand. ' Reuters


FBM KLCI flat ahead of 10MP announcement

KUALA LUMPUR: The FBM KLCI rose marginally higher by 0.19 of a point to 1,290.27 at 9.30am on Thursday, June 10 as investors await the announcement of the 10th Malaysia Plan later in the morning.

The benchmark index had started the morning in negative territory but was soon lifted by gains at CIMB, Maybank and RHB Capital.

Losers edged gainers by 80 to 72, while 111 counters traded unchanged. Volume was 164.5 million shares valued at RM45.32 million.

CIMB and Maybank added two sen each to RM6.90 and RM7.40, while RHB Capital rose four sen to RM5.74.

Other gainers in early trade included Aeon that added 13 sen to RM4.89, KFCH up 12 sen to RM8.47, KPJ up seven sen to RM3.13 while Jobstreet, Knusford and HSL added five sen each to RM2.05, RM1.50 and RM1.48, respectively.

Among the decliners, BAT fell 10 sen to RM43.72 and Berjaya Corp shed one sen to RM1.37.

Other losers included K-Star Sports, Perduren, OSK Property, Century and KSL.

Talam was the most actively traded stock with 131.6 million shares done. The counter added one sen to 15 sen. Other actives included Kenmark, Kumpulan Europlus, Titan Chemicals and K-Star Sports.