Thursday, July 29, 2010

Sime Darby slips, CIMB lowers TP to RM8.15

KUALA LUMPUR: Sime Darby slipped in late morning trade on Thursday, July 29 which could be linked to near-term uncertainty over the probe into the energy and utilities division.

At 11.11am, it was down seven sen to RM7.69 with 636,100 shares done.

CIMB Equities Research had maintained a NEUTRAL recommendation on Sime with a lower target price of RM8.15. It said with the earnings downgrade, it is lowering its sum-of-parts (SOP) based target price from RM8.40 to RM8.15.

'There is no change to our valuation basis of 10% discount to SOP. The discount essentially factors in ongoing concern and uncertainty over corporate governance and the group's direction,' it said.

CIMB Equities Research said there is no change to its NEUTRAL call on the stock. We are positive on the appointment of a new CEO which could bring positive changes to the group.

'However, this is clouded by near-term uncertainty over the probe into the E&U division, a possible management reshuffle and changes in the group's strategy,' it said.




Asia shares retreat from highs, dollar dips

TOKYO: Asian stocks edged down from a three-month high and the dollar eased towards three-month lows on Thursday, July 29 hit by soft U.S. data that underlined the patchy nature of the U.S. economic recovery.

Mixed data on June durable goods orders and a downbeat Federal Reserve take on the economy became the latest in a string of lacklustre indicators to suggest the momentum of the U.S. economic recovery is slowing, broadly dampening investor sentiment.

Traders said a move back into riskier assets had cooled a bit after the Fed's Beige Book of anecdotal reports pointed to a less-than-booming recovery, with sluggish housing markets and sales of costly items such as new cars weakening.

"Profit-taking is coming to the fore because coupled with worries about the uncertain outlook for the U.S. and European economies, U.S. stocks seem to be peaking," said Yutaka Miura, a senior technical analyst at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.

Asian shares fell after hitting their highest level since May 5 on Wednesday, buoyed by robust corporate earnings in the U.S. and Europe that helped ease, albeit temporarily, concerns that the global economy may stall in the second half.

The MSCI index of Asia Pacific shares ex-Japan edged down 0.2 percent.

Information TECHNOLOGY [] shares were the biggest losers across the region, a reflection of renewed concern over U.S. demand, while healthcare stocks edged higher as investors turned defensive, seeking out shares seen as resilient in the face of economic volatility overseas.

Japan's Nikkei average lost 0.5 percent to 9,700.42 as investors took profits after a rally that lifted the benchmark to a two-week closing high on Wednesday

Panasonic Corp tumbled over 5 percent after sources told Reuters it plans to acquire the shares it does not already own in Sanyo Electric Co and Panasonic Electric Works Co Ltd Sanyo shares soared more than 26 percent.

A slew of companies, including Panasonic, Sony Corp and Nissan Motor Co, all report earnings later in the day as Japan's earnings season peaks.

Australian shares fell 0.4 percent, dragged down by banks as confidence took a hit from the downbeat Beige Book, while shares in Hong Kong slipped 0.2 percent, shrugging off modest gains in Shanghai.

Attention is now turning to U.S. jobless claims later in the day and U.S. second quarter GDP on Friday.

A Reuters poll showed annual U.S. growth in the quarter was expected to slow to 2.5 percent from 2.7 percent in the first quarter amid a cooling in consumer demand, but a recent flurry of weak data suggest it lost some momentum heading into summer.

KIWI STRUGGLES, DOLLAR SOFT

The New Zealand dollar fell sharply after the Reserve Bank of Zealand signalled the pace of further interest rate hikes would be less than earlier thought, though it later staged a mild recovery.

The central bank lifted interest rates by a quarter point on Thursday, as widely expected, but said further hikes would probably be more gradual because of a deteriorating outlook for the country's main trading partners and subdued domestic demand.

The kiwi fell to as low as $0.7207, from $0.7280 before the announcement, before staging a mild recovery.

"The neutral statement and revised market expectations for future rate decisions will help in taking upside pressure off the kiwi," said Josh Williamson, an analyst at Citi.

The dollar index against a basket of major currencies was down 0.1 percent at 82.11 after the weak U.S. data, with near-term support at 81.44, the 50 percent retracement of the index's move from a low of 74.17 in December 2009 to a high of 88.71 on June 7.

The greenback also lost ground against the yen edging down 0.2 percent to 87.28 yen.

The euro consolidated below $1.30, but held near 11-week highs against the dollar as concerns shifted from Europe's debt crisis to the uneven U.S. economy.

But gold rebounded, although gains could be limited after holdings in the world's largest gold-backed ETF (exchange-traded fund) SPDR Gold Trust dropped to their weakest since June.

Spot gold rose to $1,165.25 an ounce by 0206 GMT after falling as low as $1,156.90 on Wednesday, its weakest since late April.

U.S. crude futures were littled changed at around $77 a barrel after falling for a second session overnight on a suprise build in U.S. crude oil inventories. - Reuters




AgBank exercises HK over-allotment, IPO at $20.8 bln

HONG KONG: The Agricultural Bank of China Ltd, came a step closer to becoming the world's top IPO after China's No. 3 lender released extra shares in Hong Kong, increasing the amount raised so far to $20.8 billion.

Analysts now expect AgBank to exercise the over-allotment of the Shanghai portion of its IPO as well, which will take total proceeds from the IPO to a record $22.1 billion, surpassing the $21.9 billion raised by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd in 2007.

After lacklustre debut in mid-July, AgBank's Hong Kong shares have risen about 11 percent to trade at HK$3.55 by 0210 GMT. The strong performance over the past two weeks has encouraged AgBank exercise the over-allotment to raise and extra HK$11.96 billion ($1.5 billion).

"Because of the mega size of AgBank IPO, the stock will be added to benchmark indices, making it mandatory for fund managers to include the stock in their portfolios. That has created demand for the stock," said Ben Kwong, chief operating officer at KGI Asia.

A high proportion of the AgBank IPO went to cornerstone investors, also limiting selling pressure, he said.

"(But) based on the current price of AgBank, its valuation is not very attractive compared with the other state banks. The upsize of AgBank shares price is limited," he added.

The news of AgBank's overallotment comes as China's banks continue to tap stock market to replenish their capital base.

Late on Wednesday, ICBC said it would raise $6.64 billion through a rights offer, while China CONSTRUCTION [] Bank Bank has announced plans to raise about $11 billion..

Over-allotments, known as greenshoes, are released when demand for the shares in the after market is heavy. Underwriters release the shares, set aside at the original IPO price, to the allocated holders who then become public stockholders.

That extra chunk of stock sold is added to the total proceeds of the IPO. Underwriters typically have 30 days to release or dissolve the greenshoe, depending on demand.

AgBank sold 25.4 billion shares at HK$3.20 in the Hong Kong portion of its IPO and 22.2 billion shares at 2.68 yuan in Shanghai.

Its Shanghai shares are up about 6 percent form its offer price and analysts now expect AgBank to release $1.32 billion of additional shares there.

The lead underwriters of the A Share Offering may exercise the over-allotment option in the 30 days following its July 15 debut. - Reuters


Top Glove up on positive outlook for sector

KUALA LUMPUR: Top Glove advanced in early trade on Thursday, July 29 as Citi Group global markets research sees more upside for the glove manufacturing sector.

At 9.32am, Top Glove was up 12 sen to RM6.68 with 253,900 shares done.

Citi Research had initiate Kossan and Supermax at Buy/Low Risk with target prices of RM4.95 and RM7.40 respectively, underpinned by earnings growth of 15-24% and ROE of 31%.

'Top Glove is rated Hold/Low Risk given its lower earnings growth of 10.5% and ROE of 25%,' it said.

The research house said its RM7.25 target price values the stock at 16x FY11E EPS, or 1SD above its historical P/E of 13.5x.

Citi Research said while it believes the stock to continue to command premium valuations given its larger earnings base and excellent track record, 'we expect the premium gap to narrow as earnings growth momentum moderates and growing market share becomes increasingly challenging'.


CIMB Research retains Outperform on Daibochi

KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Equities Research reiterated its Outperform call on Daibochi Plastic and Packaging Bhd.

It said on Thursday, July 29 that factors that could catalyse the stock include i) margin expansion over the next few quarters, ii) contracts from major non-F&B companies and, iii) attractive dividend yields of around 7%.

CIMB Research said Daibochi's 1H10 results met its and market expectations. Although annualised 1H10 core net profit worked out to only 80% of its forecast, it considered it to be in line as 2H should be a stronger half.

The 2.5 sen interim tax-exempt DPS took YTD DPS to 6.0 sen, within market and its expectations.

'We maintain our earnings forecasts and RM4.60 target price, which we continue to base on 12x CY11 P/E, a 20% discount to our 15x target P/E for the market.

'Daibochi's medium-term prospects look promising given the positive initial feedback on its anti-static packaging for electronic products which was finally certified last month,' it said.


CIMB Research maintains Neutral on Sime Darby

KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Equities Research is maintaining a NEUTRAL recommendation on SIME DARBY BHD [] with a lower target price of RM8.15.

It said on Thursday, July 29 that in line with the earnings downgrade, it is lowering its sum-of-parts (SOP) based target price from RM8.40 to RM8.15.

'There is no change to our valuation basis of 10% discount to SOP. The discount essentially factors in ongoing concern and uncertainty over corporate governance and the group's direction,' it said.

CIMB Equities Research said there is no change to its NEUTRAL call on the stock. We are positive on the appointment of a new CEO which could bring positive changes to the group.

'However, this is clouded by near-term uncertainty over the probe into the E&U division, a possible management reshuffle and changes in the group's strategy,' it said.


CIMB Research: Sell on HPI at RM1.84

KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Retail Research has a Sell on HPI Resources at RM1.84, which pegs its price-to-earnings for FY11 at 5.6 times and price-to-book value of 0.7 times.

It said on Thursday, July 29 that Wednesday's pullback confirmed the bearish engulfing pattern formed on Tuesday. Next downleg would likely drag HPI towards its 38.2% FR at RM1.75, and possibly even the 50% Retracement level at RM1.68.

'Technical indicators are also showing signs of exhaustion. MACD is about to turn south while its histograms also show an easing trend. Meanwhile, RSI is diving towards the neutral zone,' it said.

CIMB Retail Research said it appears that the RM2 high would likely be its near term peak. Hence, any rebound towards this level is an opportunity to sell into strength. Only a break above RM2.02 would cancel out the negative momentum.

HPI Resources manufactures corrugated boards, carton boxes, and plastic film packaging products.


AmResearch maintains Buy on Scomi Group

KUALA LUMPUR: AmResearch maintains its BUY rating on SCOMI GROUP BHD [] but have raised its fair value to 80 sen a share (from 76 sen a share previously) based on 5% discount to its sum-of-parts (SOP) of 84 sen a share.

'We believe Scomi is undervalued, as it will certainly benefit from potential new contracts for SCOMI ENGINEERING BHD [] (SEB) - its 70%-owned subsidiary,' it said on Thursday, July 29.

Scomi associate SCOMI MARINE BHD []'s (SMB) recent proposed disposal of its Indonesian associate could result in impairment losses of RM433 million - Scomi's portion: RM185mil.

AmResearch said operational wise, its oil & gas unit will ride on stronger drilling activities globally. Scomi does have a pedigree in monorail works based on track record.

'We believe Scomi's subsidiary SEB is a leading candidate for the KL Monorail expansion. In addition there could be more earnings upside (a further 15%-20%) for SEB, via: (i) LRT - Ampang/Kelana Jaya extension & new Cheras-Kota Damansara line; and (ii) MRT involvement - via M&E works - worth RM400 million to RM500 million,' it said.


Measat soars on takeover offer

KUALA LUMPUR: Shares of MEASAT GLOBAL BHD [] jumped in early trade to RM4.08 on Thursday, July 29 after MEASAT Global Network Systems Sdn Bhd (MGNS) made an offer to take over the remaining shares at RM4.20 each.

At 9.02am, it was up 28 sen tp Rm4.08 with 1.59 million shares done.

MGNS's total acquisition cost is RM662 million, which will be satisfied fully in cash. Based on the offer price of RM4.20 per MEASAT share, MEASAT is valued at RM1.64 billion.

MGNS is the single largest shareholder in Measat Global with 59.56%. The controlling shareholder in MGNS is billionaire T. Ananda Krishnan.


Stocks, dollar slip on weak economic outlook

NEW YORK: World stocks fell, snapping a four-day rally on Wednesday, July 28 as weak orders for U.S. durable goods in June and the Federal Reserve's downbeat take on the economy dampened the outlook and drove the dollar lower.

New orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods fell unexpectedly for a second straight month, marking their largest decline since August, in a fresh sign the economy had slowed in the second quarter. But some analysts said the report was respectable after stripping out certain categories.

The Fed's Beige Book report, a summary of U.S. economic conditions, indicated activity was not as robust in a few districts and had lost steam over the past several weeks.

A rally built on strong earnings lifted the broad Standard & Poor's 500 index on Monday to close above its 200-day moving average, a closely watched measure of market direction.

But the Fed's assessment of the economy and weak data weighed on sentiment.

"Earnings have been good, but the overall economy is still sluggish at best and is not coming back as much as we would have hoped," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati.

MSCI's all-country world index dipped 0.12 percent, and the Thomson Reuters global stock index was slightly lower.

DESPITE PULLBACK, DOW UP FOR YEAR

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 39.81 points, or 0.38 percent, to end at 10,497.88. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 7.71 points, or 0.69 percent, to finish at 1,106.13. The Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 23.69 points, or 1.04 percent, to close at 2,264.56.

Even with Wednesday's decline, the Dow was still in positive territory for the year, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were slightly lower for 2010 so far.

With the S&P's 200-day moving average at about 1,114, traders are trying to determine where it has peaked or represents a consolidation point before further gains.

U.S. corporate results continued to surprise on the upside.

Defense contractor General Dynamics Corp and ConocoPhillips, the third-largest U.S. oil company, both posted stronger-than-expected quarterly profits.

After almost half of the S&P 500 having reported earnings, 77 percent of companies have beat expectations, according to Thomson Reuters Proprietary Research.

The dollar fell against the yen and eased against the euro as the weaker-than-expected reading of U.S. durable goods orders added to fears about the economy.

The dollar was down against a basket of major currencies, with the U.S. Dollar Index down 0.07 percent at 82.126.

The euro was up 0.02 percent at $1.2996.

Against the yen, the dollar was down 0.50 percent at 87.44.

Sterling hit a five-month high against the dollar at $1.5630 as earlier comments from the Bank of England did little to quell optimism about the UK economic outlook.

BONDS RISE AFTER AUCTION AND DATA

The Commerce Department said U.S. durable goods orders fell 1.0 percent in June after a revised 0.8 percent drop in May. Analysts forecast an increase of 1.0 percent.

But Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at BNY Mellon in New York, said the durable goods report is always difficult to digest. The number was negative because of commercial aircraft orders, he said.

"If you strip out aircraft and defense, you're left with a respectable rise of 0.6 percent" in the important capital goods category, he said.

Those orders were up 15.2 percent on a year-on-year basis.

"That's consistent with a strong recovery in industrial production and durable goods orders. So these numbers are not very concerning," Woolfolk said.

Treasuries rose following a strongly bid auction of $37 billion in five-year notes, which sold at yields that were lower than the same notes trading at the time in the open market.

"The market just sort of took today's data and said, 'You know what? There's still a huge demand for Treasuries; the economy's not as strong as we want it, I think we'll go ahead and buy these things,'" said Todd Colvin, vice president at MF Global in Chicago.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note gained 13/32 in price to yield 3.00 percent after trading flat at midday.

OIL DROPS, COPPER CLIMBS

Oil prices fell a second straight day on a surprise crude oil inventory build and weak economic data.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration inventory report showed crude stocks rose 7.31 million barrels last week as imports jumped. A Reuters analyst survey had forecast crude oil stocks would be down 1.6 million barrels.

"The crude data looks decidedly bearish," said Jim Ritterbusch, president at Ritterbusch & Associates in Galena, Illinois.

U.S. crude for September delivery fell 51 cents, or 0.66 percent, to settle at $76.99 a barrel.

ICE Brent slipped 7 cents to settle at $76.06 a barrel.

Copper rose to its highest point since early May after assurances on economic growth from top metals consumer China and improving fundamentals.

U.S. gold futures for August delivery climbed $2.40 to settle at $1,160.40 an ounce.

Earlier, Japan's Nikkei climbed 2.7 percent for its highest close and biggest one-day gain in two weeks. MSCI's index for Asian stocks less Japan trimmed gains to trade flat. - Reuters